As of the time of writing, the three major indices are still down, $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ 、$Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$ down 0.26% and 0.18%, $Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$ down 0.4%.

Despite the escalating global geopolitical tensions and economic and political challenges, global stock markets are expected to end the year with more than 17% growth for the second consecutive year. This is primarily due to the significant gains in Wall Street stocks in the second year, the surge of AI, and strong economic growth attracting more global capital inflow into U.S. assets.

"At first glance, the market seems to indicate exceptional excitement for 2024," said Vishnu Varathan, head of macro research for Mizuho Bank in Asia (excluding Japan). "Notably, the confidence of U.S. bulls in American exceptionalism did not suppress the excitement in other regions."

Bulls in the stock market are pinning their hopes on the "Santa Claus Rally." Historically, the end of the year has always been a very optimistic season for the U.S. market. Since 1950, the average gain during the last five trading days of each year, plus the first two trading days of the new year, is 1.3%. This year's window starts on Tuesday.

According to analysis by Adam Turnquist from LPL Financial, the average ROI of the S&P 500 Index during the "Santa Claus Rally" has been 1.3% since 1950, significantly surpassing the market's average 7-day gain of 0.3%.

He stated, "When investors are on the 'good' list, the 'positive' returns sent by Santa during the holiday season lead to average returns of 1.4% and 10.4% for the S&P 500 Index in January and for the year, respectively."

The rise of large technology stocks has fueled Wall Street's "Christmas rebound." On the previous trading day, the S&P 500 Index rose by 1.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.9%. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose by 1.3%.

Matt Maley from Miller Tabak stated, "The performance over the past few weeks shows that large tech stocks are still the main driving force in the market. These large tech stocks hold a significant share in the portfolios of numerous institutional investors, and the upcoming Bid is likely to concentrate on these stocks."

So far this month, the U.S. stock market has given back part of the gains since President Trump won on Election Day. Trump's victory once raised hopes that faster economic growth and looser regulations would boost corporate profits. There are growing concerns that Trump's preferences for trade and other policies might lead to higher inflation, greater U.S. government debt, and difficulties in global trade.

Even so, the U.S. stock market is expected to achieve strong returns in 2024. The benchmark S&P 500 Index has risen by 26.6% so far this year, still less than 1% away from the historic high set earlier this month.

The U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield increased by 2 basis points to 4.61%, while the U.S. will auction 44 billion dollars in seven-year Treasury Notes on Thursday.

Russia has launched a counter-sanction measure: incorporating Bitcoin into the international payment system.

Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov stated on Wednesday that in response to Western sanctions, Russia amended its laws to allow businesses to use Bitcoin and other Digital Currencies in international payments. Sanctions have complicated trade with major partners like Turkey, as local Banks are extremely cautious about transactions involving Russia to avoid scrutiny from Western regulators.

This year, Russia has allowed the use of Cryptos in foreign trade and has taken steps to legalize the mining of Bitcoin and other Cryptos. Russia is one of the leaders in the Global Bitcoin mining sector.

Does the Federal Reserve really have to take Trump's preferences into account?

The Federal Reserve may need to observe the economic policies of President-elect Trump to more accurately predict the trends of inflation and interest rate changes in the first half of next year.

Last week, the Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark federal funds rate to 4.5%, marking the third consecutive rate cut. Nonetheless, it raised its recent inflation expectations and mentioned the ‘highly uncertain economic policy impact assessment’ from the new government.

Given the anticipated new economic reality, the Federal Reserve also halved its 2025 interest rate cut forecast. The market currently expects the Federal Reserve to only cut rates twice in the next 12 months.

Focus on individual stocks

Growth tech stocks are generally falling today. $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ 、 $Netflix (NFLX.US)$ 、 $Meta Platforms (META.US)$ Down nearly 1%; $Apple (AAPL.US)$ 、 $Broadcom (AVGO.US)$ Slight increase.

Quantum Computing concept stocks performed strongly, $SEALSQ Corp (LAES.US)$ After rising over 10%, there was a temporary suspension of trading, $Quantum Computing (QUBT.US)$ Up 7%, $Quantum (QMCO.US)$ Increased by more than 9%, $Rigetti Computing (RGTI.US)$ Increased by over 14%.

Drone concept stocks soar, $SES AI Corp (SES.US)$ Surged 75%, $Palladyne AI (PDYN.US)$ Increased by 32%, $Unusual Machines (UMAC.US)$ Increased by 15%, $Red Cat Holdings (RCAT.US)$ Increased by 11%.

$Rumble (RUM.US)$ Increase by 20%, in three trading days has accumulated an increase of over 100%.

$Nissan Motor (ADR) (NSANY.US)$ Increase by 15%. On the news front, on December 23rd, Japanese Auto Manufacturers Honda Motor and NISSAN MOTOR CO signed a memorandum of understanding to officially start merger negotiations.

$Xiao-I (AIXI.US)$ Increase of over 12%, analysts say that AI has been very popular recently, with enormous development potential in AI applications, seizing the dual opportunities of the AI industry transformation and Digital China construction.

$Li Auto (LI.US)$ Increase of over 5%, Li Xiang discusses the latest strategy: transforming into an AI company, will definitely develop humanoid robots.

$KULR Technology (KULR.US)$ With a 27% increase, the company purchased 217.18 Bitcoins for $21 million, with an average price of $96,556.53, allocating up to 90% of its surplus cash to Bitcoin investment.

$Intuitive Machines (LUNR.US)$ With a 10% increase, the "first stock in lunar infrastructure" has secured a new contract from NASA.

Editor/Rocky