As the Christmas holiday quietly passes, the hustle and bustle of Wall Street begins to heat up once more. In this moment full of New Year hopes, the tech giant Apple stands at a historic juncture—just a step away from the $4 trillion Market Cap threshold.

$Apple (AAPL.US)$ On Tuesday, it closed up 1.15%, with the stock price reaching $258.21, setting a historic high for three consecutive trading days, securing its position as the top in U.S. stocks with a Market Cap of $3.9 trillion, needing only a 2.5% increase to hit the $4 trillion Market Cap barrier. Since November, Apple's stock price has risen nearly 15%, adding about $500 billion to its Market Cap.

The strong performance of Apple’s stock is attributed, on one hand, to investors' enthusiasm for AI and Smart Home, and on the other hand, to the expectations of a "super cycle" for Apple phones.

Adjusting the strategic focus, Apple develops Smart Home.

According to Bloomberg, Apple is adjusting its strategic focus to emphasize the development of AI, Siasun Robot&Automation technology, and Smart Home, particularly innovations in Smart Home control centers. Tech journalist Mark Gurman revealed that Apple is developing a smart doorbell with facial recognition functionality, similar to the Face ID on iPhones, which can automatically open the door. This doorbell may be compatible with existing third-party door locks compatible with Apple HomeKit, and may collaborate with lock manufacturers to provide a complete system.

Gurman stated that Apple canceled its Autos project this year, and the Vision Pro headset also received a lukewarm response. Looking ahead to next year, Apple's two major opportunities also face their respective challenges, with AI projects still catching up with tech peers, while efforts in robotics may take years to yield results. In this environment, Smart Home is expected to be the area where Apple could make the biggest impact by 2025, "After years of market dominance by Amazon and Google, Apple hopes to make a splash with a Smart Home control center integrated with AI."

In line with Apple's typical style, the company will enter a field that is already mature but still has room for transformation. The doorbell and lock system supporting Face ID could pose real competition to Amazon Ring and Google Nest.

However, Gurman pointed out that the development of the doorbell is still in the early stages.

Someone told me that the earliest product launch won't happen until the end of next year. If it eventually hits the market, I expect to fully utilize the company’s upcoming Proxima Connection Chip and its secure area feature, which helps protect customer data.

In addition, Apple plans to launch its first Smart Home device equipped with Apple Intelligence technology—a wall-mounted display—early next year. This device will serve as the 'command center' of the home, combining Apple applications, Apple Intelligence, and HomeKit integration to provide users with a more intelligent home control experience. At the same time, Apple is exploring the development of its own series of Smart Home accessories, including indoor security cameras that can function as baby monitors. These new products will further enrich Apple's Smart Home product line, providing users with a more comprehensive and convenient smart living experience.

Is a 'super cycle' approaching? iPhone shipments are expected to exceed 0.24 billion units next year.

According to Reuters, Apple has initiated negotiations with Tencent and ByteDance to use AI models in iPhones in China. Although this discussion is still in its early stages, if AI iPhones are opened up in China, it will greatly boost iPhone sales. Wedbush Analyst Dan Ives believes this will define Apple's future AI journey, as Apple has a 1.5 billion iPhone install base, with about 0.3 billion units in the upgrade window.

In the upcoming 2025, Apple will also launch a series of new products. The Apple iPhone SE4 is set to be released in March 2025 as Apple's entry-level model, the iPhone SE series has always been loved by users for its high cost-performance ratio and excellent performance. According to Gurman, this new model will completely reform its appearance, ditching the physical Home button and Touch ID fingerprint recognition in favor of Face ID and a notch design. The iPhone SE 4 is expected to introduce Apple's AI feature 'Apple Intelligence' for the first time, likely attracting more user attention.

In terms of tablet products, the iPad Air and iPad 11 will also receive updates. The new iPad Air is expected to be equipped with a more powerful chip and an updated Magic Keyboard, while the iPad 11 will support Apple Intelligence. The new MacBook Air will also be released in the spring of 2025, featuring the M4 chip.

It is worth noting that since the iPhone 14 series, Apple has adjusted its product line layout by eliminating the mini version and instead launching the Plus version. This adjustment seems to have achieved significant results, as the Plus version is noticeably more popular in the market compared to the previous mini version. Specifically, the sales share of the mini model in 2022 was only 7%, while in 2023, the share of the Plus model has risen to 11%. This trend indicates a growing consumer preference for large-screen phones.

Insiders have revealed that in 2025, Apple will once again adjust its product line by eliminating the Plus version and replacing it with the iPhone 17 Air, which focuses on a thin and lightweight design. Analyst Jeff Pu noted that the iPhone 17 Air will achieve a new thickness record for Apple phones, at only 6 millimeters, breaking the previous 6.9 millimeter record set by the iPhone 6, making it the thinnest iPhone ever. This will also help boost iPhone sales to new heights.

Citigroup analysts predict that the update cycle for the iPhone 17 will boost sales at the end of 2025 and into 2026, with anticipated sales of 0.227 billion units in 2024, 0.246 billion units in 2025, and a hopeful climb to 0.253 billion units in 2026.

Wall Street's major firms continue to be bullish.

Morgan Stanley analyst Erik Woodring stated in a report: "Recent iPhone demand remains weak, primarily due to limited Apple Intelligence features and availability, but as both expand, it will help unleash iPhone demand," the analyst reiterated that Apple is the brokerage's "top pick" entering 2025.

Investment bank Wedbush stated that Apple’s newly released iPhone 16 series will experience a strong holiday sales season this year, reaffirming a " outperforming the Large Cap" rating for Apple, with a target price of up to $300, corresponding to a total market cap expectation of up to $4.5 trillion.

Maxim Group analyst Tom Forte stated that Apple’s latest rise in stock price reflects "investor enthusiasm for AI and expectations that AI will bring an upgrade supercycle for the iPhone," his rating is "Hold."

Adam Sarhan, CEO of 50 Park Investments, stated: "Apple's market cap nearing $4 trillion proves its enduring dominance in the technology sector. This milestone reinforces Apple’s status as a market leader and innovator."

Although most major banks are very optimistic about Apple's future, some analysts still point out certain risks:

1. High valuation: Buffett has continued to reduce his shareholding in Apple this year, and the recent surge in stock prices has pushed Apple's PE ratio to the highest level in nearly three years at 33.5, while Microsoft's is at 31.3, NVIDIA's is at 31.7, and the SP500 is at 22 times.

2. Tariff risk: If Trump imposes tariffs on Chinese products, Apple may face retaliatory tariffs. However, analysts believe that Apple may receive tariff exemptions for products like iPhone, Mac, and iPad, similar to the first round of tariffs against China in 2018.

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Editor/lambor