With the start of the "Santa Claus rally" in the US stock market, $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ the stock price surged 7.36% on Tuesday, leading the gains among technology giants. Since Trump won the presidential election, Tesla's stocks have entered "supercharging mode," with investor enthusiasm soaring, and the stock price has increased by over 90% from the election day on November 5 to now.

Last Wednesday, Tesla's stock price briefly climbed to an all-time high of $488.54 during trading. As 2024 approaches, market focus is shifting towards Tesla's upcoming fourth-quarter vehicle delivery data, and whether the stock price can set a new record based on these delivery numbers.

Tesla is expected to set a delivery record in Q4.

Tesla is expected to announce the complete fourth-quarter vehicle delivery data around January 2. According to market forecasts, Tesla is anticipated to break its previous delivery record. According to FactSet data, analysts generally predict a fourth-quarter vehicle delivery volume of 0.498 million units, and 1.79 million units for 2024.

Previously, Tesla stated that it expects a slight increase in vehicle deliveries this year, with the delivery volume for 2023 being 1.81 million units. This means that to achieve this target, Tesla needs to deliver approximately 0.515 million vehicles in the fourth quarter, far exceeding the 0.4845 million units from the fourth quarter of 2023.

Barclays analysts estimate Tesla's total delivery volume for the fourth quarter at 0.515 million units, believing this will maintain strong momentum in the stock market. Analysts indicated that investors' focus on Tesla's stock fundamentals is generally limited, and unless there is significant over-expectation or under-expectation, the release of fourth-quarter delivery volumes is expected to have little impact on the stock.

Deutsche Bank analysts stated that some Institutions expect Tesla's sales in the fourth quarter to range between 0.51 million and 0.511 million units. Based on the data so far this quarter, the numbers seem closer to 0.5 million vehicles. Among them, the Chinese market will contribute the largest portion, close to 0.21 million units, while the USA and Europe will account for approximately 0.15 million units and 84,000 units respectively. The Analyst also cited third-quarter data showing that the Tesla Model Y, Model 3, and Cybertruck are among the best-selling vehicles in the USA.

The Chinese market has provided significant support for the growth of Tesla's delivery volume. According to CnEVPost, from December 16 to December 22, the total number of insurance registrations for Tesla in China was 17,600 units, with fourth-quarter registrations (a rough indicator of deliveries) increasing by 12% compared to the previous quarter, and rising 13% compared to the same period last year.

What other highlights does Tesla have?

In addition to the expectation of setting a delivery record in the fourth quarter, some Analysts believe that Tesla's recent success in the stock market is more due to 'narrative momentum'. The market remains bullish on Tesla's long-term plans, including its production of autonomous vehicles, plans to launch robot taxis, Trump's re-election, and Musk’s appointment as co-leader of the new government efficiency department (DOGE). These factors have collectively driven the surge in Tesla's stock price.

Last week, Tesla's long-term 'bullish' - US investment bank Wedbush Analyst Daniel Ives maintained an 'outperform' rating and raised Tesla's Target Price from $400 to $515. He predicts that by the end of 2025, Tesla's stock price could reach $650 at the most optimistic expectations, with the company's total market value exceeding $2 trillion.

Ives stated that the policy changes brought by Trump’s second term as president will change the game rules, and for Tesla, this company's autonomous driving and AI Businesses will achieve a better Operational environment.

• The 'ChatGPT moment' for autonomous driving may be approaching.

The 'ChatGPT moment' for autonomous driving may arrive in 2025. The Pacific Securities believes that the next three years will be a critical phase for the intelligent upgrade of electric vehicles, with Tesla being the core driving force. By 2025, Tesla's FSD is expected to gradually reach a major turning point globally, thus truly ushering the New energy Fund industry into the intelligent era.

Since Elon Musk showcased the Tesla Robotaxi at a press conference in early October, Tesla has been accelerating its Robotaxi program. On December 21, Tesla announced on the official X platform that the era of autonomous taxi (Robotaxi) is closer than you think. According to reports, some vehicle owners recently received the most powerful FSD V13.2 update in Tesla's history, which brings significant updates compared to V12. Analysts say that the realization of Robotaxi requires policy support, and the policy obstacles for autonomous driving are expected to significantly decrease after Trump's administration.

• Plans to launch new models.

At the Tesla investor meeting held by Deutsche Bank in December, it revealed that Tesla plans to launch a new model named "Model Q" in the first half of 2025, with a post-subsidy price of less than 0.03 million USD. In the second half of 2025, Tesla also plans to launch other new models to expand its potential market size. It is speculated that one of these may be a long-wheelbase Model Y variant with three rows to be launched in China.

At the same time, Tesla emphasized at the meeting that the sales growth target for 2025 is 20-30%, based on maximizing existing production capacity utilization. After the meeting, Deutsche Bank raised its target price for Tesla from 295 USD to 370 USD, mainly reflecting a higher valuation for Tesla's autonomous driving efforts.

• Leading innovation in manufacturing.

In addition to electric vehicles and autonomous driving technology, Tesla is also leading innovation in the manufacturing sector. Recently, Launch I/O CEO Jeff Lutz pointed out that Tesla is redefining the manufacturing industry and reshaping factory production models, which may be the company's most impactful yet underrated innovation.

Jeff Lutz stated that Tesla treats its factories with the same level of design, testing, and refinement as its vehicles, establishing specifications and performance Indicators. This focus on manufacturing efficiency will significantly reduce production costs, potentially approaching zero: "I think many people have not fully recognized this. In the future, whether it is the Cybertruck or the Optimus robot, this approach will be used for production."

Additionally, Hyundai recently announced that it will adopt Tesla's charging interface for its electric vehicles, and starting from the fourth quarter of 2024, newly produced electric vehicles will be equipped with NACS charging connectors. This move is expected to bring at least 112,000 new potential customers to Tesla's supercharging network.

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编辑/jayden