国产叉车正处于全球化加速期。参照日本丰田工业发展，丰田更早实现全球化，品牌认可度和客户粘性高，2023年收入达1306.6亿元，海外比重高达82%。同期，安徽合力收入与丰田差距较大，主要系合力出口产品单价低，且丰田工业收入包含后市场服务和仓储整体解决方案。随着安徽合力在品牌知名度、技术创新、产品质量和性价比方面，实现综合竞争力提升。安徽合力交货周期优势，运营能力出色，成本费用低，净利率优于丰田工业，且销量差距正缩小，竞争力逐步提升，出海进程正在加速。Key investment points:
A leader in state-owned forklifts, actively promoting globalization. The company has been deeply involved in the forklift field for many years. Its business covers the entire forklift industry chain. It has significant advantages in R&D innovation, industrial scale, brand effect, and operating costs within the industry. The global forklift sales industry has steadily ranked in the top ten, with domestic sales ranking first. The company has built “1 Chinese headquarters+N overseas centers+X global teams” around the world. Currently, more than 300 overseas agents cover more than 150 countries around the world, and is actively expanding its global penetration rate and influence.
The global market for forklifts is vast, and overseas giants have a large share. Global forklift sales maintained a steady growth trend. In 2013-2023, forklift sales increased from 0.9888 million units to 2.1015 million units, with a compound annual growth rate of 7.83%. In 2023, Toyota, Kaiao, and Jungheinrich occupied the top three in the industry, accounting for more than 50% of the main market share. Foreign leaders started early and have a high market share. The total revenue of large-scale global companies is 419.018 billion yuan, and the overseas market is huge.
Domestic forklifts are at an accelerated pace of globalization. Referring to the development of Japan's Toyota industry, Toyota achieved globalization earlier, with high brand recognition and customer stickiness. Revenue reached 130.66 billion yuan in 2023, and the overseas share was as high as 82%. In the same period, there was a big gap between Anhui Heli's revenue and Toyota. The main reason was that the unit price of Heli's export products was low, and Toyota's industrial revenue included aftermarket services and overall warehousing solutions. With Anhui joining forces to improve overall competitiveness in terms of brand awareness, technological innovation, product quality and cost performance. Anhui Heli has an advantage in the delivery cycle. It has excellent operating capacity, low costs and expenses, a net interest rate superior to Toyota Industries, and the sales gap is narrowing, competitiveness is gradually improving, and the overseas market process is accelerating.
The “lithium electrification+unmanned” trend is accelerating. In recent years, lithium battery technology has developed rapidly. With its advantages of lightness, small size, high energy density, fast charging speed, long life, and low maintenance costs, it has accelerated electrification. In 2023, sales of electric forklifts (excluding Class III) in China increased to 0.1948 million units, accounting for 34.06%. China's lithium battery industry is leading and has a cluster advantage.
Anhui Heli has the ability to develop core components such as forklift motors, electronic controls, and batteries, which have profoundly benefited from the trend of forklift electrification. Judging from the trend of unmanned forklifts, fork-type mobile robots have functions such as unmanned driving, remote monitoring, and warehouse management, and are widely used in handling scenarios such as repetitive handling, high handling intensity, and poor working environments, and have become a future development trend. In 2023, domestic fork-type mobile robot sales reached 0.0195 million units, +46.6% compared with the same period last year. Anhui is committed to innovation-driven development, developing unmanned intelligent forklifts, providing customers with one-stop intelligent logistics system solutions, and becoming a technology leader in the industry.
Investment advice: The company is a leading domestic forklift and has achieved the entire industrial chain manufacturing of complete vehicles, key components, core systems, structural parts and castings. I am optimistic about the advancement of the company's strategies such as globalization, electrification, intelligence, and unmanned operation, and future convertible bond projects will gradually be put into operation. The company expects the company's net profit to be 1.415/1.587/1.866 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026, respectively. The PE corresponding to the current stock price is 11.53/10.28/8.74 times, respectively, for the first time, covering the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: international trade risks; industry competition exacerbates risks; risk of cost fluctuations.
