Key Insights
- Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Quanex Building Products fair value estimate is US$39.40
- Current share price of US$25.18 suggests Quanex Building Products is potentially 36% undervalued
- The US$36.33 analyst price target for NX is 7.8% less than our estimate of fair value
How far off is Quanex Building Products Corporation (NYSE:NX) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.
Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.
The Model
We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
| 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | |
| Levered FCF ($, Millions) | US$95.6m | US$116.4m | US$121.9m | US$126.9m | US$131.6m | US$136.0m | US$140.2m | US$144.4m | US$148.5m | US$152.7m |
| Growth Rate Estimate Source | Analyst x2 | Analyst x2 | Est @ 4.74% | Est @ 4.10% | Est @ 3.66% | Est @ 3.35% | Est @ 3.13% | Est @ 2.98% | Est @ 2.87% | Est @ 2.79% |
| Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 9.0% | US$87.7 | US$98.0 | US$94.1 | US$89.9 | US$85.5 | US$81.0 | US$76.7 | US$72.4 | US$68.3 | US$64.4 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$818m
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.6%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 9.0%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$153m× (1 + 2.6%) ÷ (9.0%– 2.6%) = US$2.5b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$2.5b÷ ( 1 + 9.0%)10= US$1.0b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$1.9b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$25.2, the company appears quite good value at a 36% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.
Important Assumptions
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Quanex Building Products as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 9.0%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.551. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for Quanex Building Products
- Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows.
- Dividend information for NX.
- Earnings declined over the past year.
- Interest payments on debt are not well covered.
- Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Building market.
- Shareholders have been diluted in the past year.
- Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the American market.
- Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
- Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow.
- Revenue is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
- Is NX well equipped to handle threats?
Looking Ahead:
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. Why is the intrinsic value higher than the current share price? For Quanex Building Products, we've compiled three important elements you should consider:
- Risks: Be aware that Quanex Building Products is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is a bit unpleasant...
- Future Earnings: How does NX's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
