植田和男表示，日本在通胀方面的努力已经看到成效，Kazuo Ueda said that before the next rate hike, it is necessary to carefully examine Trump's policy position after taking office and the prospects for next year's wage negotiations. Although Kazuo Ueda's statement reflects the Bank of Japan's determination to continue raising interest rates, he did not disclose the exact moment. Currently, most analysts expect the bank to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in January or March.
Kazuo Ueda delivered a speech, reaffirming his focus on next year's “Chundou” and Trump's influence.
On Wednesday, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda delivered a speech at a business conference in Tokyo, saying that next year Japan's inflation will be closer to the bank's 2% target, paving the way for further interest rate hikes.
Kazuo Ueda said that Japan's efforts in inflation have paid off. If the economy continues to improve, the bank will raise interest rates because maintaining excessive monetary support for a long period of time may increase the risk of inflation.
“As labor shortages increase and wages increase, consumption shows signs of improvement. After years of active monetary stimulus policies, Japan has made progress in achieving long-term inflation targets.”
At the same time, he warned that it is necessary to carefully review the consequences of the “high level of uncertainty” surrounding overseas economies, especially the economic policy of US President-elect Trump after taking office. He said that before raising interest rates again, it is necessary to wait for more information on Trump's policy stance.
Kazuo Ueda also said that the outlook for wage negotiations next spring is also the key to evaluating the monetary policy path:
“The timing and speed of adjusting the degree of monetary easing will depend on the development of economic activity and prices and future financial conditions.”
When talking about the outlook for 2025, Kazuo Ueda said:
“Our forecast is that the virtuous cycle will intensify further, and the Japanese economy will move closer to a sustainable and stable 2% inflation, while wages will rise.”
Although Kazuo Ueda's statement showed the Bank of Japan's determination to continue raising interest rates, the exact timing was not disclosed. Currently, most analysts expect the bank to raise the benchmark interest rate from 0.25% to 0.5% in January or March.
The Bank of Japan “remains on hold” as scheduled at this month's monetary policy meeting. Kazuo Ueda said at a press conference held on the same day that the Japanese economy is recovering moderately and prices are expected to gradually rise, but there is still high uncertainty about the economy and inflation. The bank will hold its next monetary policy meeting on January 23-24.
