While not a mind-blowing move, it is good to see that the Paycom Software, Inc. (NYSE:PAYC) share price has gained 25% in the last three months. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last three years have been less than pleasing. In fact, the share price is down 50% in the last three years, falling well short of the market return.
Since Paycom Software has shed US$1.3b from its value in the past 7 days, let's see if the longer term decline has been driven by the business' economics.
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
During the unfortunate three years of share price decline, Paycom Software actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 41% per year. This is quite a puzzle, and suggests there might be something temporarily buoying the share price. Alternatively, growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.
It's worth taking a look at other metrics, because the EPS growth doesn't seem to match with the falling share price.
With a rather small yield of just 0.7% we doubt that the stock's share price is based on its dividend. Revenue is actually up 20% over the three years, so the share price drop doesn't seem to hinge on revenue, either. It's probably worth investigating Paycom Software further; while we may be missing something on this analysis, there might also be an opportunity.
You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
We're pleased to report that the CEO is remunerated more modestly than most CEOs at similarly capitalized companies. But while CEO remuneration is always worth checking, the really important question is whether the company can grow earnings going forward. If you are thinking of buying or selling Paycom Software stock, you should check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
A Different Perspective
Paycom Software provided a TSR of 2.5% over the last twelve months. Unfortunately this falls short of the market return. On the bright side, that's still a gain, and it is certainly better than the yearly loss of about 4% endured over half a decade. So this might be a sign the business has turned its fortunes around. Most investors take the time to check the data on insider transactions. You can click here to see if insiders have been buying or selling.
But note: Paycom Software may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
