After Trump won the 2024 presidential election, Tesla's stock price soared like a "rocket", accumulating a rise of 90% in less than two months.

As of December 24, $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ the Market Cap reached 1.48 trillion USD, accounting for half of the Global Market Cap of Auto Manufacturers, with a valuation exceeding the total of the next 29 Auto Manufacturers. The other four major Auto Manufacturers on the list are $Toyota Motor (TM.US)$ 、 $BYD COMPANY (01211.HK)$ 、 $XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$ and $Ferrari (RACE.US)$ 。

The Pacific Securities believes that the next three years are a critical phase for the intelligent upgrade of Electric Vehicles, with Tesla being the core driving force. By 2025, Tesla's FSD is expected to gradually reach a turning point globally, driving the New energy Fund industry into a truly intelligent era. Under the catfish effect of Tesla, leading Electric Vehicle companies domestically and internationally are expected to accelerate intelligent applications, thus opening up demand space.

Looking ahead to 2025, Self-Driving Cars may迎来 the "ChatGPT moment." How will investors seize investment opportunities from this? Next, the competitive landscape of New energy companies in China and the USA will be dissected in detail.

Tesla is poised for a pivotal year.

Tesla has officially promoted 2025 as the year of product launches. Deutsche Bank recently held a Tesla investor meeting, revealing plans to launch a new model named "Model Q" in the first half of 2025, with a post-subsidy price of under 0.03 million USD, meaning if the USA electric vehicle tax credit policy is canceled, the price would be 37,499 USD.

In the second half of 2025, Tesla plans to launch other new models to expand its potential market size. It is speculated that one of the models may be a three-row, long-wheelbase Model Y variant to be launched in China.

According to research reports from The Pacific Securities, starting in 2025, FSD is expected to surpass human driving safety levels. Currently, the safety level of Tesla vehicles far exceeds the overall average vehicle safety level in the USA; according to Tesla's own calculations, FSD could surpass human driving safety levels by Q2 2025. Existing vehicles in 2025 will also be capable of the new version of FSD.

With the support of AI, the iteration of FSD has entered a critical period. According to foreign media reports, some owners have recently received the strongest FSD update version V13.2 in Tesla's history, which brings significant updates compared to V12, using rocket-source code, eliminating the need to set navigation in advance, allowing FSD to start directly in parking lots, with capabilities 5-10 times that of the previous generation.

It is worth noting that Open Source Securities believes that the implementation of autonomous driving, especially L4 level Robotaxi, requires policy support, and the policy barriers to the implementation of autonomous driving are expected to be significantly reduced after Trump took office. Musk previously announced that in 2025, Robotaxi based on Model 3 and Model Y would be implemented in California and Texas first, with a comprehensive promotion of Robotaxi in 2026, and the alleviation of policy barriers is a significant bullish factor.

Domestic electric vehicles are entering a significant turning point for smart applications.

Under Tesla's leadership, domestic and foreign electric vehicles are entering a significant turning point for smart applications.

Domestically, companies like Xiaopeng, XIAOMI-W, and BYD are accelerating the smart applications of electric vehicles. In 2024, Xiaopeng will adjust its technology development department with a focus on AI end-to-end, AI applications, and AI efficiency. In 2024, XIAOMI-W's smart driving team will be reorganized into the 'end-to-end algorithm and function department'; BYD has established the Tianxuan development department for self-research in smart driving.

Overseas, companies like BMW and Mercedes-Benz are also accelerating the upgrade of their smart levels. At the 2024 Technology Innovation Day event, Mercedes-Benz launched a brand new 'pure vision scheme without images L2++ full-scene high-level intelligent driving function'. The BMW iX3 already offers L2+ smart driving capabilities.

Looking ahead, Open Source Securities believes that the speed of self-driving adoption in the domestic market and consumer acceptance is expected to replicate the path of the rise of smart phones, with a development speed likely to surpass that of the USA. The bank anticipates that 2025 will mark an important period of rapid increase in the penetration rate of advanced smart driving features, focusing on the launch plans of new models from new players, the Huawei system, and traditional auto manufacturers in terms of smart technology, to find potential blockbuster models. Specifically,

• Xiaopeng autos

In 2025, $XPeng (XPEV.US)$ there may be 3 new models and 4 facelift models launched, initiating a strong product cycle. In terms of electrification, Xpeng Motors is launching the "Xpeng Kunpeng Super Electric System" based on years of technical advantages accumulated in the "three electricals" sector. In terms of intelligence, Xpeng Motors' Turing AI smart driving achieves a leading smart driving experience.

It is worth noting that Xpeng Motors' current smart driving capability has already significantly increased the success rate of lane changes by 155%, expecting to achieve a hope of taking control only once within a hundred kilometers in all urban areas of China by the second half of 2025. This means that based on the current average commuting distance of 70 kilometers, only 3-4 takeovers would be needed per week, and all takeovers would be for experience purposes rather than due to safety issues. In terms of planning, AI driver assistance will be implemented by the end of 2024, and in approximately the next 18 months, models equipped with XNGP Max will achieve software that approaches an L3 plus experience, with exploration of certain scenarios for self-driving starting in 2026.

• Ideal autos

$Li Auto (LI.US)$ In 2025, three pure electric models are expected to be launched, supplementing the pure electric product matrix.

In the Self-Driving Cars track, Li Auto is betting on end-to-end + VLM intelligent driving. After officially pushing the end-to-end + VLM intelligent driving dual system architecture on October 23, Li Auto fully rolled out the parking space to parking space function with the OTA 6.5 version on November 28.

• NIO

$NIO Inc (NIO.US)$ LEDAO and Firefly are launching simultaneously, with a target of doubling sales for the year.

The LEDAO brand will launch two new cars in 2025, which will respectively target the Li Auto L8 with a 6/7 seat mid-large SUV, and the Li Auto L7 with a large five-seat SUV. Li Bin's goal for LEDAO Autos is to achieve monthly deliveries of 20,000 units by March 2025, with an annual sales forecast of approximately 240,000 units.

The 'Firefly' brand is positioned in the high-end small car market, with its first vehicle being a compact car set to start deliveries in H1 2025, aiming for monthly sales of around 5,000 units. Currently, the battery swap stations for LEDAO and NIO can be shared, while 'Firefly' will have its own separate battery swap station system.

• XIAOMI-W Autos.

In 2025, XIAOMI-W has provided an early sales forecast of 360,000 units. Currently, XIAOMI-W only has one model, the SU7, which will launch the SU7 Ultra version in March 2025; at the same time, it will introduce its first SUV model, the XIAOMI YU7.

Notably, according to media reports, XIAOMI-W has made astonishing investments and progress in smart driving over the past six months. Since the official launch of its first product at the end of March, XIAOMI-W's smart driving system has evolved through three versions: from high-precision maps + modular architecture, to mapless + modular architecture, and now to the end-to-end large model architecture, catching up with the development pace of most auto manufacturers' three generations of smart driving systems in just over six months.

The end-to-end + VLM architecture smart driving system of XIAOMI-W has officially been named HAD and will enter internal testing starting in November, with a high likelihood of releasing a pioneer version by the end of December.

It is foreseeable that once XIAOMI-W's advanced smart driving system is implemented in the future, it will become another major selling point for XIAOMI-W.

The market expects that in 2025, XIAOMI-W will be represented by the XIAOMI YU7 + XIAOMI SU7 + XIAOMI SU7 Ultra competing together, with the HAD smart driving system as the strongest BHFF powerful advantage, launching a strong offensive in the smart automobile market and becoming a super 'catfish' to drive the transformation of the smart automobile market.

• BYD

$BYD COMPANY (01211.HK)$ Plans are in place to launch smart driving versions for all models in 2025.

Additionally, on December 24, BYD's "God Eye" advanced intelligent driving assistance system officially launched nation-wide, achieving the no-map city navigation CNOA function. From now on, it will be PUSHed across all brands through OTA, allowing BYD's intelligent driving to enter the fast lane.

The market generally believes that the launch of BYD's God Eye is an important step for BYD's breakthrough in intelligent driving. In the future, with the support of the Xuankong architecture, BYD will continue to deepen the integration of intelligence and electricity, and it is worth looking forward to what level its intelligent driving experience can reach.

Additionally, besides Weilai, Xiaopeng, BYD, and XIAOMI-W, Huawei Hongmong's intelligent travel system has also been exposed to have registered multiple trademarks including: Xianjie, Tianjie, Junjie, Zhengjie, Jiangjie, and many others. Meanwhile, several traditional auto manufacturers are seeking cooperation with Huawei.

Finally, the research and development of intelligent driving relies on chips. The first half of the new energy sector looks at the Battery, while the second half focuses on chips. This is the consensus in the industry.Previous articles have also mentioned thatLooking ahead, after mobile phones have become "computers with communication functions," cars will be "computers with four wheels," becoming the main driving force for chip demand.

Will new energy vehicle companies face a major change? Make good use of it."Investment Theme"Function, capture investment opportunities!

mooers

Self-Driving Cars may welcome the "ChatGPT moment" in 2025,

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Editor/Somer