① The price of Bitcoin dropped to $92,000 on Tuesday, but has since recovered to $98,000, showing extreme volatility; ② The Bitcoin ETF in the USA has recorded net Outflow for four consecutive days, with a total net Outflow of $1.52 billion; ③ Meanwhile, the Ethereum ETF has seen Inflow for two consecutive days, leading Analysts to predict that Ethereum may outperform Bitcoin in January next year.
The crypto market is extremely volatile; after Bitcoin's price plunged to $92,000 on Christmas Eve, it surged back to $98,000 on Wednesday, indicating the intense speculation in the market.
On Tuesday, the most popular Bitcoin ETF—Blackrock $iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT.US)$ set the largest single-day outflow in history, reaching $0.1887 billion, surpassing the record high of $72.2 million it set on December 20.
Meanwhile, the Bitcoin ETF has recorded net Outflow for the fourth consecutive trading day. Since December 19, the cumulative net Outflow of 12 Bitcoin ETFs listed in the USA has reached a total of 1.52 billion USD.
This decline is related to the Federal Reserve’s comments on interest rate cuts last week. Due to unstable inflation, the Federal Reserve hinted that the path for rate cuts next year will become more gradual, directly causing a price crash in various Assets, including US stocks, Gold, and Bitcoin, on that day.
In addition, some Analysts warned that the money supply of the USD has decreased by 4.1 trillion USD after peaking in October, and since there is about a ten-week lag correlation between Bitcoin prices and changes in the Global money supply, it could trigger a price drop in Bitcoin by 0.02 million USD.
The latecomers surpass the predecessors.
Since the Bitcoin ETF was listed on January 11 this year, it has been fervently sought after by investors, with cumulative net Inflow exceeding 35 billion USD so far, while the Bitcoin it holds is valued at over 110 billion USD, accounting for 5.71% of the total circulating supply of Bitcoin.
This has made Bitcoin ETF one of the best-performing ETF categories this year, also helping to drive the epic surge in Bitcoin prices. However, after Bitcoin today broke the price of 0.1 million USD, there has been an increase in profit-taking sentiment in the market, combined with adverse macroeconomic factors, leading to this round of Bitcoin price adjustment.
Meanwhile, another cryptocurrency, Ethereum, began to gain momentum during this phase. On Tuesday, the Ethereum ETF saw inflows for the second consecutive day, adding an investment of 53.6 million USD after an inflow of 0.1308 billion USD on Monday.
This category of ETF was only approved for listing by the USA Securities and Exchange Commission in July this year, and compared to the Bitcoin ETF, the Ethereum ETF's rise has been relatively smooth and slow. However, starting in late November, the Ethereum ETF suddenly received a large amount of attention, setting a record for 18 consecutive days of net inflows.
The starkly different performances of Bitcoin and Ethereum on ETFs have led some analysts to believe that Ethereum might lead Bitcoin in January next year.
Michael van de Poppe, founder of MN Capital, pointed out that there may be more inflows into Ethereum early next year, while Bitcoin markets continue to see outflows, leading to price consolidation. He expects this to trigger a rally in altcoins within the Ethereum ecosystem.
Editor/Rocky