Is Bitcoin about to reach the peak of this cycle?

On December 24, MarketWatch reported that Bitcoin has been volatile since breaking the $100,000 mark earlier this month. However, analysts from crypto research firm K33 indicated that if history repeats itself, Bitcoin could reach new highs again by mid-January 2025, followed by a peak.

Yesterday, Bitcoin rose by 6.1%, currently priced at $98,048 per coin. On December 17, Bitcoin recorded an all-time high of $108,309 per coin, but fell after the Federal Reserve adopted a hawkish stance last week.

Vetle Lunde, head of the K33 research department, stated that based on historical data, the average time from Bitcoin's first all-time high to the last all-time high is 318 days. Since the first historical high of this cycle appeared on March 5, Bitcoin might reach a new peak on January 17, 2025.

Generally speaking, crypto Analysts categorize Bitcoin's price performance into four stages every four years: breakout, speculation, correction, and accumulation. This four-year cycle is mainly based on Bitcoin's halving schedule, which controls the supply of Bitcoin through the halving mechanism, occurring approximately every four years, with the most recent halving taking place this April.

If Bitcoin really does reach its cyclical peak in mid-January, it will coincide with Trump's presidential inauguration on January 20. Lunde believes that after Trump takes office, the related speculation around Trump trades will taper off, with Bitcoin being one of them.

"Trump's election is a catalyst for Bitcoin's strong rebound in the fourth quarter, while the inauguration may be a natural end to this momentum, as implementing Trump's policy promises requires political processes."

Lunde stated that based on the peak prices of Bitcoin in previous cycles, the peak of this current cycle could reach $146,000 per coin; if referencing historical Market Cap, the highest price of Bitcoin in this cycle could reach $212,500 per coin.

However, it should be noted that Bitcoin was launched in 2009, and its time as an Asset is relatively short, coupled with a small sample size, the Historical Data of Bitcoin may not have sufficient representativeness, and past performance may not necessarily predict future performance.

Lunde pointed out that in fact, as the halving effect weakens, the cyclical effect of Bitcoin has also become less pronounced.

Currently, as the year-end approaches, the enthusiasm in the cryptocurrency market seems to be cooling off. As of Monday, Bitcoin ETF has experienced three consecutive days of Outflow.

Additionally, although MSTR announced on Monday that it had purchased 5,262 Bitcoins at approximately $106,662 per coin again, QCP Capital's Analyst pointed out: "This is the smallest purchase volume for MSTR in recent times, raising doubts about whether MSTR's buying interest has weakened at this price level."