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速腾聚创(2498.HK):稳健出货量及持续改善的毛利率带来重估

Suteng Juchuang (2498.HK): Steady Shipments and Continuously Improved Gross Margin Lead to Revaluation

West Bull Securities ·  Dec 11, 2024 16:00

In the third quarter of 2024, Superstar Juchuang (02498.HK) achieved total revenue of RMB 410 million, of which RMB 380 million came from lidar sales. Quarterly gross margin increased further to 17.5%, rising for three consecutive quarters, and the net profit margin narrowed sharply from -37.4% in the second quarter to -20.4% in the third quarter.

The growth in sales volume of lidar applications in ADAS is predictable: Superstar Juchuang (02498.HK) sold 131,400 units in the third quarter, and sales volume of lidar applied to ADAS increased by 87.1% year-on-year. MX products aim to penetrate the 150,000-200,000 yuan automobile market, including BYD's SEAL and Han, GAC Aeon's AION V and AION RT, Geely Galaxy, and Extreme Krypton. The products have received targeted cooperation from 7 automakers. MX products will drive the Group's future sales volume and gradually replace M1P products. It is estimated that the sales volume of this product will account for nearly 30% to 40% of the Group's total sales volume in 2025. At the same time, the Group also achieved ideal progress in the field of high-level autonomous driving. The Group obtained SOP targeted cooperation from leading L4+ autonomous driving companies such as My Little Pony Zhixing, which was an important step for the Group in autonomous driving travel business. The rapid expansion of the autonomous driving mobility market will bring huge market space to the Group, and we will see related revenue contributions starting in the fourth quarter of next year.

Sales volume of lidar applications for robots will explode: Superstar Juchuang (02498.HK) achieved sales volume of approximately 7,200 lidar units for robotics in the third quarter, and the Helios and bPearl series remain the main source of revenue. Overseas demand is still strong, and it is expected to further stimulate sales volume in 2025. We expect sales volume in the fourth quarter of 2024 to be lower than expected due to delayed delivery, but it is likely to grow 2 to 3 times year-on-year in 2025, or even reach the level of 100,000.

Continued improvement in gross profit margin: The Group's gross margin increased further to 17.5% in the third quarter, which is ideal. Among them, the gross margin of lidar applied to ADAS and robotics reached 14.1% and 34.6%. The increase in gross margin benefited from i) continued expansion of scale effects, and ii) lower procurement costs, which were superior to our expectations. Thanks to i) the increased penetration rate of MX products and E platforms, ii) the increase in revenue from the self-driving mobility business, and iii) the expansion of scale effects, we believe that the Group's gross profit level will continue to improve in the future.

Steady shipping volume and continuously improving gross margin led to a revaluation: in view of i) explosive growth in shipment volume, ii) continuous improvement in gross margin, iii) operational efficiency being optimized, and iv) revaluation of relevant Chinese shares, we raised our group target price to HK$32.16 per share. The lidar market is growing rapidly, and the penetration rate of applications in ADAS and robots continues to rise. Acquiring customers and increasing customer stickiness is currently the main task of market participants. In addition, we are likely to see more contributions from autonomous driving and overseas customers in 2026, as well as related targeted projects next year. Furthermore, the Group successfully showcased the research results of 8 degrees of freedom dexterity at the China International Hi-Tech Fair, strengthening its position as a robot technology platform company.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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