AI 数据中心建设加剧全球电力消耗，催化燃气轮机需求上行，公司燃机叶片收入有望长期增长。（1）根据高德纳预测，目前全球为实现生成式AI 而新建的大型数据中心数量高速增长，导致电力需求高增。2023-2027 年全球AI 服务器用电量将从195 太瓦时提升到500 太瓦时。根据Grid Strategies 预测，受数据中心和制造业增长的驱动，美国未来五年电力需求可能增加128GW，增长15.8%，未来AI 服务器用电量大幅提升。（2）数据中心的高商业价值要求其有长期稳定、充裕的备用电源，相比风电和太阳能发电的波动性和随机性，燃气轮机凭借启动速度快、发电效率高、调峰能力强等优势，未来有望成为调峰发电的重要选择方案，看好燃气轮机需求长期上行，公司燃气轮机叶片业务收入有望实现长期增长。occurrences
Grid Strategies released a report in December stating that, driven by growth in data centers and manufacturing, the US electricity demand may increase by 128 GW in the next five years, an increase of 15.8%, and the power consumption of AI servers is expected to increase significantly in the future.
Management analysis
AI data center construction has increased global electricity consumption, catalyzed an increase in gas turbine demand, and the company's combustion engine blade revenue is expected to grow in the long term. (1) According to Gartner's forecast, the number of large-scale data centers built to achieve generative AI is currently growing rapidly around the world, leading to a high increase in electricity demand. Global AI server power consumption will increase from 195 terawatt-hours to 500 terawatt-hours in 2023-2027. According to Grid Strategies, driven by data center and manufacturing growth, the US electricity demand may increase by 128 GW in the next five years, an increase of 15.8%, and the power consumption of AI servers will increase dramatically in the future. (2) The high commercial value of data centers requires long-term stability and sufficient backup power. Compared with the fluctuation and randomness of wind power and solar power generation, gas turbines are expected to become an important choice for peak shifting power generation in the future. They are optimistic about the long-term rise in gas turbine demand, and the company's gas turbine blade business revenue is expected to grow in the long term.
The company signed a large number of new orders in 3Q24, and contract liabilities increased significantly. We are optimistic about long-term revenue growth.
As of September 30, '24, the company had on-hand orders of about 0.8 billion yuan in the gas turbine sector, of which new orders in August/September alone reached 0.4 billion yuan. By the end of the third quarter, the company's contractual liabilities reached 0.171 billion yuan, up 0.117 billion yuan from the end of the second quarter. The company currently has a large number of orders, and is optimistic about the long-term growth of the company's gas turbine blade business revenue.
It is proposed to issue convertible bonds to raise capital and expand production, and it is optimistic that the company's overall competitiveness will improve. According to the company's announcement, the company plans to issue convertible bonds to raise no more than 1.5 billion yuan for blade chassis processing and coating projects, intelligent upgrading projects for advanced nuclear energy materials and key components, and supplementary working capital. The fund-raising project helps the company form a complete blade and chassis production, processing and coating production chain, and enhances the company's core competitiveness in the field of aero engine and gas turbine components. At the same time, it helps the company expand the production capacity of advanced nuclear energy materials, further enhance the technical level of the company's existing products, optimize the product structure, expand the scale of operation, and improve the company's overall competitiveness and profit level.
Profit forecasting, valuation and ratings
We expect the company's revenue in 2024-2026 to be 2.71/3.35/4.075 billion yuan, net profit to mother of 0.32/0.423/0.554 billion yuan, and the corresponding PE is 28/21/16X, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk Alerts
RMB exchange rate fluctuation; raw material price fluctuation; downstream demand falls short of expectations; promotion of low-altitude application scenarios falls short of expectations
