Key investment points

The electrification of construction machinery can be roughly divided into “three steps”. (1) Electrification 1.0: Replacing the fuel energy supply system with an electric energy supply system, and retaining the multi-way valve as the core hydraulic control component. The disadvantage is that a large amount of energy is consumed in the oil circuit and multi-way valves; (2) Electrification 2.0: The walking/rotation system is electrified to reduce the degree of multi-way valve integration, and some use an electro-hydraulic hybrid drive mode (motor+hydraulic cylinder); (3) Electrification 3.0:

The actuator is electrified, and an electric cylinder is used instead of a traditional hydraulic cylinder as the transmission component; at the same time, a distributed transmission layout is used: on the basis of a high-speed pump, the volume of the motor and pump is reduced, and the corresponding actuator is driven point-to-point by the motor+high-speed pump to reduce unnecessary energy consumption as much as possible and maximize the efficiency of the whole machine.

High-speed pumps are a key breakthrough point for the distribution of electrified construction machinery in the future. The company is a global leader in industrial grade high-speed pumps. Limited to the speed of traditional internal combustion engines, the current maximum speed limit for industrial pumps is generally 2000-2200rpm, which is the main factor limiting the motor output speed. High-speed pumps have advantages in increasing power density, miniaturization, cost reduction, etc., and are the core components of distributed layouts; moreover, the miniaturized pump and motor can be integrated into motor pumps, further saving layout space. However, at present, high-speed pump products are mainly concentrated in the aerospace field, and few people pay attention to industrial-grade high-speed pump products. Taking full advantage of the advantages of high-speed pumps requires increasing the pump speed to 10,000 rpm or more. Hengli Hydraulic responds positively to the demand in the electrification market and has now launched a variety of 4,500 rpm to 5000 rpm high-speed pumps and integrated motor pump products. At present, the company's high-speed pumps and motor pumps have been used in various types of construction machinery such as excavators, loaders, aerial work platforms, etc., greatly improving the operating capacity of the equipment. The screw is the core component of the electric cylinder and the key linear drive for electrification 3.0. In the field of electrification of construction machinery, the screw is the core component of the electric cylinder. The various linear drive parameters of the electric cylinder have excellent performance. It can be used as an advanced electrification replacement for current hydraulic components, and combined with the layout of electrified machines to achieve distributed electronic control, it has become an important driving factor for the 3.0 stage of electrification. The company has a comprehensive layout of the screw industry. After the project is fully put into operation, it is expected to achieve an annual output of 0.104 million standard planetary roller screw electric cylinders, 0.1 million meters of standard ball screws, and 100,000 meters of heavy-duty ball screws. It has now entered the downstream of various construction machinery such as high machinery. Since high machines have low output power requirements and a relatively simple working environment, electric cylinders have become a litmus test for entering the construction machinery sector. The success of electric cylinders in the field of high machinery means that they will have the opportunity to be verified in more construction machinery products in the future. As a key variable in electrification 3.0, the continuous popularity of electric cylinders will be an opportunity to achieve major breakthroughs in the electrification of construction machinery.

Profit forecast and investment rating: The growth rate of the company's main business is stable, and new categories of high-speed pumps, screws and other products have huge application prospects in the future. We maintain the 2024-2026 net profit forecast value of 2.462/3.033/3.623 billion yuan, corresponding to the current market capitalization PE of 29/23/20x, respectively. We are still firmly optimistic about the company's long-term development prospects and maintain a “buy” rating.

Risk warning: The electrification process of construction machinery falls short of expectations, the development of high-speed pumps and screws falls short of expectations, and the domestic industry demand boom falls short of expectations.