澳洲联储会议纪要显示已经接近降息，对通胀更有信心，但宣告胜利仍为时过早，此前在12月会议上继续维持利率在十三年高位不变。韩国在野党称即刻开始代总统韩德洙弹劾程序。受政局动荡影响，外国投资者疯狂逃离韩国股市，13个交易日净卖出超过3万亿韩元，韩元逼近十五年最低。US and European stock and bond markets closed early, with US stocks collectively closing at daily highs. Large technology stocks like NVIDIA led the gains, Apple reached a new high, Broadcom rose over 3%, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley both rose over 2%, the China Concept Index once rose over 1%, Baosheng Media Group surged 310%, and NIO and YUM CHINA each rose over 3%. After the US long-term bond yield hit a seven-month high, it turned down, the USD hovered around a two-year high, the Japanese yen continued below 157 nearing a five-month low, offshore RMB dipped below 7.31 CNY before turning up, and Bitcoin rose by 6%. Oil, London aluminum and nickel rose over 1%, with US oil surpassing $70.
On Tuesday, data and trading were light, with US and European technology stocks leading the gains, driving US stocks to rebound strongly for the second consecutive day, while European stocks edged higher. The S&P 500 Index has now gained 1.8% this week, and the Dow Jones increased by about 1%. As large technology stocks performed strongly, the Nasdaq rose by 2.3% so far this week. The S&P 500 Index has erased its losses for the month, with a monthly gain of 0.1%. The Nasdaq gained 4.2% in December, with Google A up 16%, Apple up nearly 9%, and Tesla up about 34%. However, the Dow is down about 3.6% in December, expected to post its worst monthly performance since April.
According to LPL research data, since 1950, during the last five trading days of each year and the two trading days before the New Year (the so-called "Santa Claus rally" period), the average return of the S&P 500 Index is 1.3%, significantly higher than the market average seven-day return of 0.3%. This Tuesday marked the beginning of the 2023 Santa Claus rally.
The minutes from the Australian Federal Reserve meeting indicate that a rate cut is nearing, with greater confidence in inflation, but declaring victory is still premature. Previously, interest rates were maintained at a thirteen-year high during the December meeting. In South Korea, the opposition party has initiated impeachment procedures against acting President Han De-soo. Due to political turmoil, foreign investors have drastically exited the South Korean stock market, with net sales exceeding 3 trillion KRW over 13 trading days, and the Korean won is nearing a fifteen-year low.
On the eve of Christmas, US stocks rebounded strongly, with market sentiment visibly improving towards the end of the session, leading to a rapid plunge in volatility, pushing the major stock indexes to close at new daily highs. This was driven by Tesla's over 7% rise, along with a broad increase in technology stocks, semiconductor stocks, and AI concept stocks, with the Nasdaq closing up 1.35%, leading the gainers. Due to technical difficulties, American Airlines temporarily grounded all domestic flights on one of the busiest travel days of the year but later canceled the grounding and saw its stock price rise.
The three major US stock indexes all rose. The S&P 500 Index closed up 1.1%. The Dow Jones, closely tied to the economic cycle, rose by 390 points, or 0.91%, closing at 43,297.03 points. The Nasdaq, predominantly made up of technology stocks, rose by 1.35%. The Nasdaq 100 rose by 1.37%, while the Nasdaq Technology Market Capitalization Weighted Index (NDXTMC) increased by 1.16%. The Russell 2000 Small Cap Index, more sensitive to economic cycles, rose by 1%. The fear index, VIX, fell by 14.96%, closing at 14.27.
All Industry ETFs in the USA closed higher, with the Consumer Discretionary ETF leading the way with an increase of over 2.3%. The Consumer Discretionary ETF rose by 2.31%, while Financial ETFs, Technology Industry ETFs, Global Airlines ETFs, and Internet Stocks Index ETFs all rose by at least 1%. Semiconductor ETFs, Energy Industry ETFs, and Banks ETFs gained more than 0.8%.
The 'Tech Seven Sisters' all rose. (1) Tesla closed up 7.36% as its energy storage factory nears completion, achieving 'Shanghai speed' in just seven months. Cathie Wood's ARK Innovation ETF continues to liquidate its position after Tesla's stock price increases, selling 13,040 shares of Tesla stock on December 23. However, Wood is increasingly bullish on Tesla stock. (2) Amazon closed up 1.77%, denying claims that it requires sellers to 'choose one' as unfounded, stating they can independently decide on their sales strategy. (3) NVIDIA closed up 0.39%. (4) Google A closed up 0.76%. (5) Microsoft closed up 0.94%. (6) Meta closed up 1.32%, with Citigroup listing Meta, Amazon, and DoorDash as its 'favorites' in the internet sector, as these companies will all be in a multi-year product cycle by 2025. Citigroup raised Meta's target price from $705 to $753, Amazon's target price from $252 to $275, and set DoorDash's target price at $211. Meta plans to integrate a display into the Meta Ray-Ban smart glasses by 2025, which will display notifications and replies from the Meta virtual assistant, with an overall expected price of around $300. (7) Apple closed up 1.15%, reaching a new high, with investment bank Wedbush stating that Apple’s newly launched iPhone 16 series is expected to see a strong holiday sales season this year; reiterating a 'buy' rating for Apple and its target price of up to $300, corresponding to a total market cap expectation of up to $4.5 trillion.
Chip stocks rose across the board. The PHLX Semiconductor Index closed up 1.07%. The SOXX Industry ETF closed up 1.03%. The double leveraged NVIDIA ETF closed up 0.79%. Arm Holdings closed up 3.88%, Broadcom closed up 3.15%, Nano Microchips closed up 3.11%, AMD closed up 1.36%, Intel closed up 0.99%, Qualcomm closed up 0.71%, KLA Corp closed up 0.39%, Wolfspeed was flat, while ASML ADR closed down 0.18%, Micron Technology closed down 0.49%, and Taiwan Semiconductor closed down 0.5% temporarily away from new highs, buoyed by enthusiasm for AI trading and cumulatively rising about 84% this year, expected to become the best annual performance since 1999.
AI concept stocks rose across the board. Serve Robotics closed down 4.01%, NVIDIA-backed SoundHound AI closed down 0.93%, while Palantir closed up 2.09%, CrowdStrike closed up 1.19%, C3.ai closed up 0.71%, Oracle closed up 1.34%, Palantir closed up 2.09%, BigBear.ai closed up 16.93%, Super Micro Computer closed up 5.96%, and BullFrog AI closed up 1.42%.
Most China Concept Stocks rose. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index closed up 0.79%. Among the ETFs, the FTSE China 3x Long ETF (YINN) closed up 3.37%, the China Technology Index ETF (CQQQ) and the China Internet Index ETF (KWEB) both closed up 0.17%.
Among popular China Concept Stocks, Jin Medical International closed up 8.89%, Daqo New Energy closed up 8.05%, Baosheng Media Group closed up 310.4%, China Liberal Education closed up 10.92%, Fangdd Network closed up 5.88%, NIO closed up 3.13%, Li Auto closed up 1.37%, Xpeng closed up 1.33%, while E-Home Household Service closed down 8.59%, X3 Holdings closed down 17.84%, and ZEEKR closed down 2.36%.
Bitcoin surged above 0.099 million USD, and concept stocks in the Cryptos sector rose broadly. Bitdeer Technologies increased by 14.81%, Riot Platforms rose by 8.06%, and Canaan went up by 9.22%. The crypto exchange giant Coinbase gained 4.28%, BTC Digital rose by 11.06%, Hut 8 increased by 12.15%, and "Bitcoin whale" MSTR climbed by 7.81%.
The banking group is suing the Federal Reserve over stress tests, seeking to increase the transparency of rule implementation, while major Wall Street banks saw widespread gains. Goldman Sachs rose by 2.1%, Morgan Stanley climbed by 2.1%, Barclays increased by 1.97%, Citigroup gained 1.76%, JPMorgan rose by 1.64%, Wells Fargo & Co increased by 1.49%, and Bank of America climbed by 1.12%.
Among other key stocks: (1) Honda Motor rose by 1.19% after announcing a 1.1 trillion yen share buyback plan. (2) American Airlines, after falling over 2.6%, increased by 0.58%, having previously grounded all flights nationwide due to technical issues. (3) Starbucks rose by 2.82%, reporting that its strike would expand to over 300 stores across the USA.
European stocks closed higher on Tuesday, led by Technology and Mining sectors, with Novo-Nordisk rebounding for two consecutive days, increasing by 5.7% and boosting the market. The stock markets of Germany, Italy, Greece, Denmark, and Brazil were closed.
The pan-European STOXX 600 index increased by 0.18%, closing at 503.81 points. The Eurozone STOXX 50 index rose by 0.1%.
The French CAC 40 index rose by 0.14%. The UK FTSE 100 index increased by 0.42%. The Spain IBEX 35 index rose by 0.33%.
Nick Brind, the fund manager of Polar Capital Global Financial Trust, said that European Banks in 2024mergers and acquisitions.The trading volume exceeded 41.5 billion USD, making it the busiest since 2020, driving strong performance in Banks stocks. Financial companies accounted for 17% of mergers and acquisitions in Europe, and it is expected that M&A activity will remain vibrant through 2025, as management teams hold a significant amount of Cash / Money Market and are eager to spend it, while the benefits of Share Buyback are diminishing.
The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond briefly exceeded 4.6% during the day, reaching a seven-month high but retreated slightly to decline at the end of trading. The yield on the 2/10-year UK bonds rose by about 3 basis points.
US Bonds: The yield on the 10-year benchmark US Treasury bond briefly surpassed 4.6%, setting a new high since May, but fell slightly back to decline at the close. The two-year US Treasury yield remained roughly unchanged in the range of 4.33% to 4.363%. The 30-year US Treasury yield also touched its highest level since late April during the session before turning down.
European Bonds: At the close of the European market, the yield on the UK 10-year Treasury bond rose by 2.9 basis points to 4.575%, while the two-year UK bond yield increased by 2.8 basis points.
The USD index slightly rose, continuing to approach a two-year high. After a verbal warning from the Japanese Finance Minister, the yen briefly rose above 157 but fell back at the close. The offshore yuan briefly rose by 103 points, surpassing 7.30, as Bitcoin crossed 0.099 million dollars.
USD: The USD index DXY rose by 0.14% to 108.24. Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve will slow its rate cuts compared to other global central banks, and since the end of September, the dollar has gained over 7%.
Non-USD currencies: The euro fell 0.15% against the US dollar to 1.0389, nearing a two-year low. The British pound slipped slightly by 0.06% to 1.2527, hovering around a one-month low. The Japanese yen closed down 0.1% towards 157.4. Bruce Kirk from Goldman Sachs believes the current exchange rate level of the yen to the US dollar is favorable for foreign capital to purchase Japanese stocks, and the risk of the yen falling below the 160 mark is low, as this could prompt intervention from Japanese authorities. The offshore Chinese yuan (CNH) against the US dollar fell below 7.31 before turning to rise, with intraday gains in US stocks peaking at 103 points, near 7.2975.
Cryptos are broadly rising: Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market cap, briefly rose over 6% exceeding 0.099 million USD.
Despite low trading volumes ahead of the Christmas holiday, the short-term market outlook is slightly optimistic, supporting a rebound in international oil prices, reversing the downward trend of the previous trading day, with US oil standing above $70:
US oil: WTI February crude oil futures closed up $0.86, an increase of over 1.24%, reporting $70.10 per barrel. US oil peaked intraday with gains exceeding 1.7%, breaking through $70.40.
Brent oil: Brent February crude oil futures closed up $0.95, an increase of about 1.31%, reporting $73.58 per barrel. Brent oil peaked intraday with gains exceeding 1.6%, breaking through $73.80.
Natural gas: US January natural gas futures closed up 7.93%, reporting $3.9460 per million British thermal units.
The trading volume during the Christmas holiday is light, and on Tuesday, gold prices stabilized:
Gold: COMEX Gold Futures rose 0.2% at the close, reporting $2633.5 per ounce. Spot gold surged over 0.3% at its peak, breaking the $2620 mark.
Silver: COMEX Silver Futures increased by 0.14% at the close, reporting $30.230 per ounce. Spot silver rose nearly 0.5% to approach $29.80.
This year, the gold market has performed remarkably, with an annual cumulative increase of 27%, likely achieving its best annual performance since 2010. Several Analysts previously predicted that the series of new highs set this year will lay the foundation for similar upward momentum in 2025. This expectation is mainly based on the following factors: central banks' continuous gold purchases, escalating geopolitical tensions, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts.
London zinc closed up more than 2%, with London aluminum and nickel rising over 1%: London copper rose by $38, reporting $8950 per ton. London aluminum rose by $38, reporting $2565 per ton. London zinc rose by $64, reporting $3049 per ton. London lead fell by $2, reporting $1984 per ton. London nickel rose by $185, reporting $15477 per ton. London tin rose by $276, reporting $28818 per ton. London cobalt remained flat, reporting $24300 per ton.
编辑/jayden
