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Texas Pacific Land's (NYSE:TPL) Five-year Total Shareholder Returns Outpace the Underlying Earnings Growth

Simply Wall St ·  Dec 24 20:53

The Texas Pacific Land Corporation (NYSE:TPL) share price is down a rather concerning 34% in the last month. But that does not change the realty that the stock's performance has been terrific, over five years. In that time, the share price has soared some 334% higher! Arguably, the recent fall is to be expected after such a strong rise. But the real question is whether the business fundamentals can improve over the long term.

While this past week has detracted from the company's five-year return, let's look at the recent trends of the underlying business and see if the gains have been in alignment.

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

Over half a decade, Texas Pacific Land managed to grow its earnings per share at 7.8% a year. This EPS growth is lower than the 34% average annual increase in the share price. So it's fair to assume the market has a higher opinion of the business than it did five years ago. That's not necessarily surprising considering the five-year track record of earnings growth. This favorable sentiment is reflected in its (fairly optimistic) P/E ratio of 58.34.

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

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NYSE:TPL Earnings Per Share Growth December 24th 2024

It's good to see that there was some significant insider buying in the last three months. That's a positive. That said, we think earnings and revenue growth trends are even more important factors to consider. This free interactive report on Texas Pacific Land's earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, Texas Pacific Land's TSR for the last 5 years was 377%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that Texas Pacific Land shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 116% over the last year. Of course, that includes the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 37% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Texas Pacific Land better, we need to consider many other factors. Case in point: We've spotted 1 warning sign for Texas Pacific Land you should be aware of.

There are plenty of other companies that have insiders buying up shares. You probably do not want to miss this free list of undervalued small cap companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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