These days it's easy to simply buy an index fund, and your returns should (roughly) match the market. But one can do better than that by picking better than average stocks (as part of a diversified portfolio). To wit, the Eastman Kodak Company (NYSE:KODK) share price is 67% higher than it was a year ago, much better than the market return of around 24% (not including dividends) in the same period. If it can keep that out-performance up over the long term, investors will do very well! It is also impressive that the stock is up 38% over three years, adding to the sense that it is a real winner.
In light of the stock dropping 8.6% in the past week, we want to investigate the longer term story, and see if fundamentals have been the driver of the company's positive one-year return.
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
Eastman Kodak was able to grow EPS by 2.5% in the last twelve months. This EPS growth is significantly lower than the 67% increase in the share price. This indicates that the market is now more optimistic about the stock.
You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
It's good to see that there was some significant insider buying in the last three months. That's a positive. On the other hand, we think the revenue and earnings trends are much more meaningful measures of the business. Dive deeper into the earnings by checking this interactive graph of Eastman Kodak's earnings, revenue and cash flow.
A Different Perspective
We're pleased to report that Eastman Kodak shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 67% over one year. Since the one-year TSR is better than the five-year TSR (the latter coming in at 10% per year), it would seem that the stock's performance has improved in recent times. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Eastman Kodak better, we need to consider many other factors. For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Eastman Kodak that you should be aware of before investing here.
If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: most of them are flying under the radar).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.