旗舰轿车ET9 正式上市，行业首个量产线控转向。ET9 售价为78.8 万元，BaaS模式后售价66 万元，同步发售的999 台First Edition首发限量版，售价为81.8 万元，目前公司指引首发限量版已经正式售罄，目前ET9 整体订单符合公司预期。交付节奏上，ET9 计划于2025 年3 月开启交付。整体来看，ET9 集公司十二项全栈自研技术成果于一身，带来包括设计、空间、舒适、音响、智能系统、智驾、安全、三电、驾乘在内的九大创新旗舰体验，以机械架构为例，搭载的天行全主动悬架是行业内首个量产的线控转向。整体看，ET9 较奥迪A8L和宝马7 系等竞品车型体现了较强的竞争力。The company's recent situation
The company held NIO Day in Guangzhou on December 21, Beijing time.
reviews
The flagship sedan ET9 was officially launched, and the industry's first mass production line control shift. The ET9 sold for 0.788 million yuan, and the price was 0.66 million yuan after the BaaS model. The first limited edition of 999 units sold at the same time was 0.818 million yuan. Currently, the first limited edition of the company's guidelines is officially sold out. Currently, the overall ET9 order is in line with the company's expectations. In terms of delivery pace, ET9 is scheduled to begin delivery in March 2025. Overall, ET9 combines the company's twelve full-stack self-developed technological achievements, bringing nine innovative flagship experiences including design, space, comfort, audio, intelligent systems, smart driving, safety, three electricity, and driving. Taking the mechanical architecture as an example, the Tianxing full active suspension is the first mass-produced wire-controlled steering in the industry. Overall, the ET9 shows strong competitiveness compared to competing models such as the Audi A8L and BMW 7 Series.
Launch the Firefly brand and enter the high-end car market. The company officially released the newly built smart electric high-end car brand Firefly. The brand logo is inspired by the compact, flexible, energetic, and energetic Firefly. It is mainly aimed at users who are comfortable, confident and love life, and adheres to the brand spirit of “free to glow”. Judging from the competency base, Firefly is expected to achieve a differentiated advantage in competitive products such as Smart and Mini, based on ten years of R&D, design, safety standards, and intelligent technology accumulated by NIO's main brand. The pre-sale price of the first product is $0.1488 million, and it is scheduled to be officially launched in April '25. We expect the price to drop further under the BaaS model.
2025 will usher in a stronger product cycle, and financial improvements are expected to continue. Ledao plans to deliver more than 10,000 vehicles in December, and gradually has a monthly delivery capacity of 0.02 million vehicles. The company guides the main brand to break through 0.02 million sales in December, and we expect the overall sales volume to exceed 0.03 million vehicles in December. Looking ahead to 2025, the company is expected to usher in a stronger product cycle. Currently, it is planning the first ET9, Firefly model, and the facelift of existing models, all of which are expected to deliver incremental contributions. From a financial perspective, along with sales growth and cost reduction, the company revealed in the 3Q results meeting that the gross margin of NIO and LEDAO is expected to gradually reach 15%/20%, respectively, leading to a narrowing of overall losses.
Profit forecasting and valuation
Currently, US stocks and Hong Kong stocks correspond to 0.9x EV/REV in 2024, maintain 2024/25 non-GAAP net profit, and maintain an outperforming industry rating. Maintaining the target price of HK$5/$7 for Hong Kong and US stocks, all corresponding to 1.5x EV/REV in 2024. Hong Kong stocks and US stocks have 53%/54% upward space compared to current stock prices, respectively.
risks
Demand fell short of expectations due to increased competition in the market, and cost control and power exchange cooperation fell short of expectations.
