足元の受注動向は地域によってバラつきがあるようで、日本は回復基調となっているものの、海外に関しては景気低迷の影響もあってまだ上向きに転じたとは言い切れないようで、第3四半期の売上高は前四半期比で若干減少する見通しとなっている。このため、全体的に見れば当初の予想と比較して下期の売上回復ペースは緩やかなものにとどまる公算が大きく、通期売上高については下振れする可能性がある。だた、下期の売上高は上期に対して横ばいまたは上向きに転じる可能性が高いことや、為替レートが前提の137.90円/米ドルに対して円安水準で推移していることから、各段階利益では計画を上回る可能性が高いと弊社では見ている。1.0円/米ドルの円安による年間収益への影響額は、売上高で421百万円、営業利益で46百万円と試算されている※。■ The performance trends of SANWA TECHNOLOGIES <8137>
3. Earnings forecast for the fiscal year ending March 2025.
The consolidated performance for the fiscal year ending March 2025 is expected to have a revenue of 155070 million yen, a decrease of 6.7% from the previous year, an operating profit of 3080 million yen, a decrease of 50.4% from the previous year, a recurring profit of 3220 million yen, a decrease of 51.4% from the previous year, and a net income attributed to the Shareholder of 2410 million yen, a decrease of 51.9% from the previous year, as per the expected figures. While the interim period performance exceeded the expected figures, the reasons include the slow recovery of performance at Overseas locations, volatility in Exchange Rates, and uncertain geopolitical risks.
Current order trends seem to vary by Region; although Japan is showing a recovery trend, it cannot be definitively stated that Overseas has turned upward due to the impact of economic Stunk. The revenue for the third quarter is expected to decrease slightly compared to the previous quarter. Therefore, overall, the recovery pace of revenue in the latter half is likely to remain moderate compared to the initial forecast, and there is a possibility of downward deviation for the full-year revenue. However, there is a high possibility that the revenue in the latter half will be flat or turn upward compared to the first half, and since the Exchange Rates are trending at a yen depreciation level against the assumed rate of 137.90 yen/USD, it is believed that the profits at each stage will likely exceed the planned figures. An annual revenue impact amount from a 1.0 yen/USD depreciation is estimated to be 421 million yen in revenue and 46 million yen in operating profit*.
*Impact amount assuming a 1 yen fluctuation in USD/JPY, with other currencies fluctuating at the same ratio.
Regarding the impact of Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election, if concerns over tariff increases rise and supply chain risks are again emphasized, it is believed to be favorable to the company, which plays a role in the stable supply of materials.
(Written by FISCO guest analyst, Jo Sato)
