On December 19, the three major A-share indices opened high and rose during the session. By midday, the Shanghai Composite Index was up 0.68% at 3374.18 points, the Shenzhen Component Index was up 0.71%, and the Chinext Price Index was up 0.61%. The Hong Kong stock market also strengthened during the session, with the Hang Seng Index rising over 1% to return to the 0.02 million point mark, and the Hang Seng TECH Index rising by 1.2%.

It is worth noting that the Hong Kong stock market is open for only half a day today on Christmas Eve.

In the sector, Growth Tech and the central and state-owned enterprise valuation concept performed well. $XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$ 、 $BABA-W (09988.HK)$ All rose over 3%, $CNOOC (00883.HK)$ Up more than 2%, $ABC (01288.HK)$ 、 $ICBC (01398.HK)$ The four major banks are collectively making a push.

The FTSE China A50 Index continues to rise during trading, up 0.92% as of the time of writing.

In terms of news, the National Development and Reform Commission has issued the 'Overall Plan for Deepening Comprehensive Reform of International Trade in Yiwu City, Zhejiang Province.' It mentioned promoting the improvement of rules for cross-border e-commerce and reasonably optimizing the rules reflecting the intentions and interests of small and medium-sized enterprises and platforms, achieving the convergence of rules, regulations, management, and standards in the areas of data flow, commodity traceability, electronic signatures, dispute resolution, Intellectual Property Protection, and Consumer rights protection. Strengthening the alignment with high-standard international trade and economic rules, improving 'post-border' rules, optimizing the functions of electronic platforms for government procurement and other service platforms, and exploring the participation of social forces in labor and personnel dispute negotiation and mediation. Improving the foreign-related commercial mediation system and promoting the efficient connection of litigation, arbitration, and mediation, and establishing a diversified dispute resolution mechanism for international commercial disputes.

According to a research report from CITIC SEC, the 'spring frenzy' has arrived, and in January 2025, there may enter an 'acceleration stage' under the expectation of increased liquidity, with a firm structure on CNI Mid-Small Cap. Index, maintaining a Bullish stance on the Technology, Military Industry, and Machinery sectors.

Looking ahead to 2025, Huafu Securities believes that China's Capital Markets are facing a new pattern of internal progress and external stability. Huafu Securities analyzes that the growth rate of the USA economy is declining but has not yet entered recession; after the Federal Reserve begins the interest rate cut cycle, the pace of interest rate cuts may fluctuate. It is expected that the frequency of interest rate cuts in 2025 will be significantly slower than in the fourth quarter of 2024.

In terms of China's macroeconomic perspective, high-quality development is continuously being promoted. Various policies have been introduced at the Central Economic Work Conference. The macroeconomy progresses in waves. According to Huafu Securities, China's Capital Markets are embarking on a new development journey, and since late September 2024, the Capital Markets have shown distinct style differences. 'In terms of investment opportunities, the dividend acts as a shield, including sectors like Coal and Hydropower; the new type of productivity acts as a spear, specifically paying attention to Technology and Military Industry fields.'

According to a research report from CITIC SEC, observing the 2025 Global Technology Market investments from a market dimension, Chinese Technology Assets are comparatively more cost-effective than USA assets. Among Chinese Technology sectors, CITIC SEC selects the Chinese Internet Plus-Related sector as a top choice, highlighting that investors should focus on the performance turning points brought by short-term macro recovery and policy stimuli, and the revaluation opportunities brought by the sustained prosperity of the AI ecosystem in the medium to long term, while being Bullish on investment opportunities in China's domestic AI Industry Chain.

Soochow Securities believes that in 2025, the trading themes that are likely to continue will be: 'soft landing', 'growth', 'Trump trade', and 'AI and merger and acquisition concepts'. Hong Kong stocks are expected to welcome further recovery. At the beginning of 2025, domestic policy space will open up, bringing expectations for economic improvement and an increase in market risk appetite. Coupled with low valuations, Hong Kong stocks are expected to further rise.

According to the analysis of Soochow's Research Reports, the outlook for major asset categories globally in 2025 is based on two core assumptions: first, in 2025, the global economy is generally synchronized in a major interest rate cutting cycle, with the Federal Reserve halting rate cuts in the first half of the year; second, the global economy shows a divergence, with the USA possibly exhibiting a "V" shape trend. What is relatively certain is that while the global economy is declining, the USA may represent a unique super-resilient presence. What is relatively uncertain is that the policy impact since Trump's ascension is still unclear, which may cause disturbances in the global economy and assets.

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