Union Pacific Corporation (NYSE:UNP) received a lot of attention from a substantial price movement on the NYSE over the last few months, increasing to US$254 at one point, and dropping to the lows of US$223. Some share price movements can give investors a better opportunity to enter into the stock, and potentially buy at a lower price. A question to answer is whether Union Pacific's current trading price of US$226 reflective of the actual value of the large-cap? Or is it currently undervalued, providing us with the opportunity to buy? Let's take a look at Union Pacific's outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if there are any catalysts for a price change.
What Is Union Pacific Worth?
The stock seems fairly valued at the moment according to our valuation model. It's trading around 20% below our intrinsic value, which means if you buy Union Pacific today, you'd be paying a reasonable price for it. And if you believe that the stock is really worth $281.31, then there isn't much room for the share price grow beyond what it's currently trading. So, is there another chance to buy low in the future? Given that Union Pacific's share is fairly volatile (i.e. its price movements are magnified relative to the rest of the market) this could mean the price can sink lower, giving us an opportunity to buy later on. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for share price volatility.
What kind of growth will Union Pacific generate?
Future outlook is an important aspect when you're looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Buying a great company with a robust outlook at a cheap price is always a good investment, so let's also take a look at the company's future expectations. With profit expected to grow by 24% over the next couple of years, the future seems bright for Union Pacific. It looks like higher cash flow is on the cards for the stock, which should feed into a higher share valuation.
What This Means For You
Are you a shareholder? UNP's optimistic future growth appears to have been factored into the current share price, with shares trading around its fair value. However, there are also other important factors which we haven't considered today, such as the track record of its management team. Have these factors changed since the last time you looked at the stock? Will you have enough confidence to invest in the company should the price drop below its fair value?
Are you a potential investor? If you've been keeping an eye on UNP, now may not be the most advantageous time to buy, given it is trading around its fair value. However, the positive outlook is encouraging for the company, which means it's worth diving deeper into other factors such as the strength of its balance sheet, in order to take advantage of the next price drop.
So while earnings quality is important, it's equally important to consider the risks facing Union Pacific at this point in time. For example - Union Pacific has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
If you are no longer interested in Union Pacific, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.