Investment advice. At present, the inflection point of white chicken price is approaching, pig price is still relatively high, the probability of rising in the fourth quarter is high, and the profitability of the industry continues to improve. We continue to recommend the breeding plate. First pushWen's shares, Muyuan Development,Zhengbang science and technology、Tianbang sharesWhite chicken plate bibcockThe development of Shengnong、Minhe shares、Probiotic shares.
The agricultural sector performed well. (1) the market fluctuated last weekShanghai and Shenzhen 300The index is down 1.04% from the previous month.
The agricultural sector performed well, rising 0.80%, ranking sixth among 28 sub-industries. (2) as suggested in our weekly report last week, the White Chicken sector has risen sharply driven by warmer chicken prices, with leading Shengnong Development, small ticket holders and shares, probiotic shares and so on all have good excess returns. The performance of the pig farming sector is insipid in the absence of catalysis of pig price.New Wufeng、Dakang animal husbandryBenefiting from the excellent results of the three quarters, it was among the top gainers this week.Dongling grain and oilAfter the completion of the equity carding, we are about to divest the soybean processing related business, benefiting from the restructuring and transformation expectations and excellent performance. ST Zhonglu reported good results in three quarters and confirmed profits for the whole year.Take off your hatIt is expected to be favored by the market.
Pig prices basically stabilized in the fourth quarterMarket priceIt depends on the pull of demand. On October 31, Pig e-net quoted a price of 16.56 yuan per kilogram of live pigs, a slight decrease of 0.7% from last week. In October, the average price of pigs in China was 17.03yuan / kg. At present, the south has basically stabilized, while the north has fluctuated slightly. The supply side is in short supply, butConsumptionWeak, whether prices can rise in the short term depends on the pull of holiday demand. Maintain our judgment of long-term bull cycle in the medium and long term, and pig prices will continue into the third quarter of next year. Recently, feed and food prices have declined significantly, and on the basis of the slow decline in pig prices, the ratio of pig to food is still rising, and the profitability of the industry continues to improve.
Chicken seedlings shock, continue to pay attention to the inflection point. On October 31, the price of hairy chicken was 3.2 yuan per 500 grams, which was basically the same as that of last week, while the price of chicken seedlings was 0.7 yuan per feather, which was significantly lower than 1.5 yuan per feather a week ago. As we suggested last week, chicken prices are prone to short-term rapid ups and downs, but with reference to the progress of supply-side digestion, we should pay close attention to the inflection point of the industry. At present, it is at the end of over-introduction and digestion, but the influence of forced molting in the industry will prolong the digestion period to some extent, and it is expected that the supply and demand structure will be substantially improved from the end of the year to the beginning of 16 years. After a long period of deep losses, the industry has basically reached a consensus on excess capacity, and industry self-discipline measures in capacity reduction will continue to be strengthened in the future.
The 13th five-year Communique again mentions the promotion of agricultural modernization. The communique of the Fifth Plenary session of the 13th CPC Central Committee proposed to vigorously promote agricultural modernization and speed up the transformation of the mode of agricultural development. By 2020, remarkable progress should be made in agricultural modernization. It also emphasizes that the pattern of agricultural development should be reasonable and the rhythm should be synchronized with the development of other industries.
Wen's shares (300498) resumed trading on November 2. For details, see "Analysis of the first day of listing of Wen's Group".
Risk hints: epidemic factors, price fluctuations.