The rise of ChatGPT once raised concerns that it would disrupt all walks of life. Two years after the launch of this generative artificial intelligence (AI) chatbot, the situation wasn't as disastrous as some investors had predicted, yet many people are still anxious.

Earlier this month, $Adobe (ADBE.US)$ Shares plummeted after disappointing earnings guidance was announced. This has once again raised concerns that, despite developing its own AI tools, the company may in the future cede operations to AI startups such as OpenAI and Runway AI. Under these circumstances, Adobe's cumulative decline of more than 13% so far this month is the worst month for stock price performance in two years.

For investors, Adobe is the latest warning sign, although the pros and cons of AI to its business and similar businesses are still uncertain. Despite all the concerns, opinions on who are the winners and losers are still unclear.

Gil Luria, head of technology research at law firm D.A. Davidson, said: “It's too early to say whether a company can adapt to AI or whether it will fall victim to this path.” He added that AI is the most disruptive technology since the internet, but it will take more than 24 months for its impact on the market to become apparent.

It's worth mentioning that some companies that investors think are at risk are thriving. Language learning software manufacturer$Duolingo (DUOL.US)$For example, despite facing intense competition from AI startups, the company's stock price has risen by more than 50% this year. The company's embrace of AI has helped lower costs, and its expansion into other disciplines such as math and music is attracting new customers.

like$GoDaddy (GDDY.US)$with$Wix.com (WIX.US)$The stock prices of internet service companies that are thought to be potential losers under the AI wave will soar. Since this year, GoDaddy and Wix.com are up 93% and 80%, respectively. It was earlier seen as an education company that would be hit hard by ChatGPT$Pearson (PSO.US)$The stock price hit a new high since 2015 this month.

Of course, there are plenty of other companies that aren't doing well. Since the end of 2022, Goldman Sachs's basket of stocks believed to be facing increased AI risks has risen 21% and lost$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$55% increase over the same period.

The disconnect between what people expect and what's happening with AI highlights the uncertainty of this technology and how difficult it is to predict how it will shape the market and economy. Although tech giants such as Microsoft continue to invest heavily in AI, AI services are still not widely used, and it takes longer than many people expect to generate AI-related revenue.

To be sure, some companies have clearly been harmed by artificial intelligence. Online education company$Chegg (CHGG.US)$The market value has shrunk by more than 90% since the end of 2022. The company's revenue contraction has accelerated over the past two quarters, and management blamed it on negative factors brought about by generative AI services. Jefferies analyst Brent Thill pointed out in a research report that Chegg is “significantly threatened” by AI. Of the 12 analysts that the media followed up on Chegg, none recommended buying the stock.

Also, online review sites $Yelp Inc (YELP.US)$ Shares have fallen 20% this year. Although Yelp has announced a partnership with Perplexity AI, analysts have warned that AI could pose a risk to its long-term growth.

Kevin Mahn, chief investment officer at Hennion & Walsh Asset Management, said: “It's still too early to classify any company as a loser, but in the long run, the real losers will be those that start investing too late and have to try hard to catch up.”

For stock selectors, risk is paramount. Michael Bailey, head of research at Fulton Breakefield Broenniman LLC, said the company sold in October$Accenture (ACN.US)$shares because they believe AI will have a net negative impact on Accenture's IT outsourcing and consulting business as more companies seek to automate work tasks.

However, Accenture raised its fiscal year 2025 revenue forecast last week and indicated strong customer demand for its generative AI services, which drove the stock to rebound last Thursday. In response, Michael Bailey said that financial reports show that Accenture has received some boost from the AI business, but its performance may still be relatively poor.

David Kotok, chief investment officer at Cumberland Advisors, said that in a situation where there is no clear opinion on who is the long-term winner and who is the loser, it is wise to maintain diversified investments and should be biased towards large companies with the capital required for expensive AI investments. David Kotok said, “The AI wave is only going one step further, so the gap between rich and poor companies will only widen.” “We'll end up with some losers, but I don't know, I'm surprised we haven't seen many yet. We'll probably have to wait a few years to know.”

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