It is doubtless a positive to see that the Guardant Health, Inc. (NASDAQ:GH) share price has gained some 35% in the last three months. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last three years have been disappointing. Indeed, the share price is down a tragic 68% in the last three years. Some might say the recent bounce is to be expected after such a bad drop. While many would remain nervous, there could be further gains if the business can put its best foot forward.
If the past week is anything to go by, investor sentiment for Guardant Health isn't positive, so let's see if there's a mismatch between fundamentals and the share price.
Because Guardant Health made a loss in the last twelve months, we think the market is probably more focussed on revenue and revenue growth, at least for now. Generally speaking, companies without profits are expected to grow revenue every year, and at a good clip. As you can imagine, fast revenue growth, when maintained, often leads to fast profit growth.
In the last three years, Guardant Health saw its revenue grow by 22% per year, compound. That is faster than most pre-profit companies. In contrast, the share price is down 19% compound, over three years - disappointing by most standards. This could mean hype has come out of the stock because the losses are concerning investors. But a share price drop of that magnitude could well signal that the market is overly negative on the stock.
The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
We're pleased to report that the CEO is remunerated more modestly than most CEOs at similarly capitalized companies. But while CEO remuneration is always worth checking, the really important question is whether the company can grow earnings going forward. You can see what analysts are predicting for Guardant Health in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.
A Different Perspective
Guardant Health shareholders gained a total return of 10% during the year. But that return falls short of the market. On the bright side, that's still a gain, and it is certainly better than the yearly loss of about 10% endured over half a decade. So this might be a sign the business has turned its fortunes around. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Take risks, for example - Guardant Health has 3 warning signs (and 1 which is significant) we think you should know about.
But note: Guardant Health may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
