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Declining Stock and Decent Financials: Is The Market Wrong About BorgWarner Inc. (NYSE:BWA)?

Simply Wall St ·  Dec 22, 2024 20:06

It is hard to get excited after looking at BorgWarner's (NYSE:BWA) recent performance, when its stock has declined 7.2% over the past three months. But if you pay close attention, you might find that its key financial indicators look quite decent, which could mean that the stock could potentially rise in the long-term given how markets usually reward more resilient long-term fundamentals. Particularly, we will be paying attention to BorgWarner's ROE today.

Return on equity or ROE is a key measure used to assess how efficiently a company's management is utilizing the company's capital. In simpler terms, it measures the profitability of a company in relation to shareholder's equity.

How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?

The formula for ROE is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for BorgWarner is:

15% = US$984m ÷ US$6.4b (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2024).

The 'return' refers to a company's earnings over the last year. Another way to think of that is that for every $1 worth of equity, the company was able to earn $0.15 in profit.

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

BorgWarner's Earnings Growth And 15% ROE

To start with, BorgWarner's ROE looks acceptable. Further, the company's ROE compares quite favorably to the industry average of 11%. Yet, BorgWarner has posted measly growth of 4.8% over the past five years. This is interesting as the high returns should mean that the company has the ability to generate high growth but for some reason, it hasn't been able to do so. A few likely reasons why this could happen is that the company could have a high payout ratio or the business has allocated capital poorly, for instance.

As a next step, we compared BorgWarner's net income growth with the industry and were disappointed to see that the company's growth is lower than the industry average growth of 14% in the same period.

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NYSE:BWA Past Earnings Growth December 22nd 2024

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. Is BorgWarner fairly valued compared to other companies? These 3 valuation measures might help you decide.

Is BorgWarner Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?

A low three-year median payout ratio of 22% (implying that the company retains the remaining 78% of its income) suggests that BorgWarner is retaining most of its profits. This should be reflected in its earnings growth number, but that's not the case. So there could be some other explanation in that regard. For instance, the company's business may be deteriorating.

Moreover, BorgWarner has been paying dividends for at least ten years or more suggesting that management must have perceived that the shareholders prefer dividends over earnings growth. Our latest analyst data shows that the future payout ratio of the company is expected to drop to 10.0% over the next three years. Despite the lower expected payout ratio, the company's ROE is not expected to change by much.

Conclusion

In total, it does look like BorgWarner has some positive aspects to its business. Yet, the low earnings growth is a bit concerning, especially given that the company has a high rate of return and is reinvesting ma huge portion of its profits. By the looks of it, there could be some other factors, not necessarily in control of the business, that's preventing growth. On studying current analyst estimates, we found that analysts expect the company to continue its recent growth streak. To know more about the company's future earnings growth forecasts take a look at this free report on analyst forecasts for the company to find out more.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
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