occurrences

At the NIO Day event on December 21, 2024, NIO unveiled the flagship executive sedan ET9, with a starting price of 0.788 million yuan (battery rental 0.66 million yuan), and is expected to be delivered in March 2025; Firefly, which was unveiled at the same time, is the third brand with a pre-sale price of 0.0.1488 million yuan. It will be launched in April 2025. Referring to the design inspiration of MINI and Smart, it meets double five-star safety standards and satisfies double five-star safety standards Flexible demand for more space to improve the market layout of high-end and small electric vehicles.

reviews

The ET9 release is more symbolic than actual. The NIO ET9 uses a 925V high-voltage electric drive system, supports fast charging of up to 600kW, and has been upgraded in areas such as online steering, intelligent chassis, supersensing systems, and a powerful computing platform. However, the buyout price of 0.788 million yuan and the starting price of the BaaS plan of 660,000 yuan indicate that the ET9 is not a sales oriented model, and also suggests that NIO's main brand will not release new cars in the short term. Referring to the sales volume of NIO's ET7 executive sedan, from January to November this year, only 6,406 units were sold domestically, averaging about 582 units per month, while the price of ET9 almost doubled from ET7. We believe that the release of ET9 is more symbolic. After that, the flagship features based on the NT3.0 platform will gradually be decentralized, and the main sales force next year will still rely on Music Dao and Firefly. We expect ET9 to sell around 2,000 units next year, and its actual contribution to the company's overall sales is limited.

The song was thwarted, and Firefly appeared: Can it be NIO's savior? As a 0.15 million yuan car, the NIO Firefly is facing increasing competition in the market, although it is positioned younger. In addition to car companies such as BYD, Geely, and Aian, which already have popular new energy models at this price, Tesla is also expected to launch compact electric vehicles in a price range similar to Firefly in the third quarter of next year, intensifying heated competition in the same market. NIO's new brand, Ledao, is facing production capacity challenges. Although the official claims are sufficient, the actual delivery schedule has not yet been fully realized. The target of delivery exceeding 10,000 in December is already in jeopardy. It is unknown whether this impact will be transmitted until Firefly, which starts delivery in April next year. Firefly's bionic design reviews are polarized: some consumers think the shape is cute, flexible, and full of personality, while others question that it is too exaggerated and not enough to cater to popular aesthetics. Furthermore, the pre-sale price of 0.0.1488 million yuan is not that low compared to traditional fuel vehicles and other electric vehicles in the same class. It is similar to the price of the Ledao BaaS battery rental plan, and it does not yet show an obvious cost performance advantage. If it wants to stand out in the highly competitive 0.15 million yuan market, Firefly needs to be more flexible in terms of production capacity and pricing strategies, and enhance its brand image by improving channels and strengthening marketing. At the same time, its design and intelligent advantages also need to be recognized by more consumers in order to achieve a differentiated breakthrough. We remain cautiously optimistic about Firefly's market performance next year.

risks

New car orders and production capacity releases fell short of expectations; market competition intensified; construction of charging and switching facilities fell short of expectations; macroeconomic decline.