行业β判断：去美元化+降息周期开启，黄金价格有望继续向上。随着逆全球化和地缘政治博弈加剧，出于“安全”和“独立”等需求，去美元化趋势有望提速。央行购金动机，我们认为更多是基于主权货币信用价值降低，出于对国际货币体系风险的担忧，预计央行购金也将是中长期趋势，黄金或正处于新一轮上涨周期。此外随着美国货币政策出现转向，以SPDR 为代表的交易盘也开始入场，且预期未来仍有上升潜力，或也将推动本轮黄金上涨。[Core conclusion] We estimate that the company's net profit for 24-26 will be 3.321, 5.262, and 5.936 billion yuan, respectively, and PB of 2.9, 2.5, and 2.2 times, respectively. Referring to comparable companies, the company was given 3.2 times PB in 2024, and the corresponding target price was 26.04 yuan/share. It was covered for the first time, and a “gain” rating was given.
[Report Highlights] The market believes that the company is a strong beta target, and the stock price mainly follows the rise and fall of gold prices, but we believe that from an industry perspective, the gold mining industry as a whole has now fully entered the stock era, and epitaxial mergers and acquisitions may have become a core means of increasing resources and production. The parent company, Shandong Gold Group, is rich in gold resources, and there are future asset injection expectations, and the company's potential growth is strong. At the same time, the company is also improving growth through internal integration of resources such as Jiaojia Gold Mine and Xincheng Gold Mine. Driven by both endogenous and epitaxial forces, the company's mineral gold production is expected to continue to grow in the future. Furthermore, the company's focus on gold business is expected to benefit from rising gold prices. Joining the low-cost mining company Yintai is expected to further enhance cost competitiveness.
[Main logic]
Industry beta judgment: The de-dollarization+interest rate cut cycle has begun, and the price of gold is expected to continue to rise. As anti-globalization and geopolitical games intensify, the trend of de-dollarization is expected to accelerate due to demands such as “security” and “independence.” The central bank's motivation for buying gold, we believe, is more based on declining credit value of sovereign currencies. Due to concerns about risks in the international monetary system, it is expected that central bank gold purchases will also be a medium- to long-term trend, and gold may be in a new upward cycle. Furthermore, with the shift in US monetary policy, trading markets represented by SPDR have also begun to enter the market, and it is expected that there will still be potential for growth in the future, which may also drive the rise of gold in this round.
Company α discussion: The business is pure, and internal and external expansion can be expected. The company's focus on gold business is expected to benefit from rising gold prices. At the same time, after the gold mining industry as a whole has fully entered the inventory era, the corporate group has great potential for resource injection, driven by both endogenous and epitaxial forces, and future growth can be expected. In addition, the company is also continuing to deepen cost reduction and efficiency, break down indicators such as kejin costs, controllable management expenses, and pressure drop between two metals, and continue to strengthen the company's cost control capabilities. Entering the low-cost mining company Yintai, the company is also expected to further enhance its cost competitiveness.
Risk warning: declining production capacity or asset injection falling short of expectations, risk of price changes, risk of production safety, geopolitical risk, exchange rate risk, etc.
