The "three powers in one" Trump, is his political path really that smooth.

On Friday night Eastern Time, the US House of Representatives finally passed a short-term government spending bill with an overwhelming advantage of 366 votes in favor and 34 votes against, extending the funding period from Friday night to mid-March next year.

According to CCTV reports, the latest bill is almost identical to the one that failed to pass in the House on Thursday, but it removed the portion regarding the debt ceiling—specifically, the part that Trump advocated for. Previously on Thursday, Trump stated that he hoped Congress would completely eliminate the debt ceiling, but subsequently, the new bill that Trump supported failed to pass, garnering 174 votes in favor and 235 votes against.

Analysis suggests that this event indicates that Trump, who seems to have "consolidated power" and appears politically stable, now faces an uncertain future. Trump's Republican colleagues, 38 Republican representatives in the House, opposed his call to "suspend or eliminate the debt ceiling," which almost led to a government shutdown.

Although the bill passed at the last moment on Friday allowed the US government to continue operating, it mainly relied on compromises from the Democrats, and the issue of the debt ceiling for Trump's new government remains unresolved.

Not all Republicans listen to Trump.

Analysts say that conflicts within the Republican Party, along with unpredictable statements and actions from Musk at any moment, may make it more difficult for Trump’s approximately 8 trillion USD economic agenda to pass.

For those hoping that "Trump economics" would boost economic growth, this will undoubtedly be very disappointing. However, for investors, lower debt could help curb the rise in U.S. Treasury yields.

The debt ceiling will come back into effect on January 2, prohibiting the U.S. Treasury from issuing new debt to pay for expenditures already approved by Congress. While the Treasury has the ability to push back the so-called "X date" (when default actually occurs) to early summer next year, the lack of consensus in Congress on a long-term financial plan has already led two of the three major credit rating agencies to downgrade the USA debt rating.

During the campaign, Trump promised to implement an agenda centered on tax cuts. He planned to extend the provisions of the 2017 tax reform that are set to expire and add new tax incentives. Investors expect that these policies will drive growth and inflation, necessitating the issuance of a large amount of new debt; thus, this week the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries surpassed 4.5%.

Ironically, Trump also indicated during the campaign that he intended to balance the budget - many economists express skepticism about this based on the current discussions surrounding tax reform.

Reportedly, the reason the provisions of the 2017 tax reform in the USA need to be extended is that Congress manipulated the fiscal numbers at that time. According to existing rules, Congress can bypass obstructive parliamentary procedures through the "budget reconciliation" process, but only if fiscal legislation does not increase the deficit ten years out. To bypass this limitation, Congress set the 2017 tax cuts to expire at the end of 2025 and assumed that future legislators would extend them.

Now, seven years later, some members of Trump’s party are beginning to express dissatisfaction with the financial chaos brought about by this. Texas Republican Congressman Chip Roy is one of the conservative members willing to challenge the leadership on debt issues, and during a speech in the House on Thursday night, he harshly criticized his Republican colleagues:

"Congratulations, since regaining the majority on November 5, 2023, you have increased the debt again. This is truly embarrassing and shameful."

This internal division led to the ousting of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy in 2023, and currently, it may also lead to the ousting of his successor, the current Speaker Mike Johnson - Johnson will seek re-election on January 3, and just two Republican opposition votes would be enough to fail his re-election.

Moreover, in addition to internal troubles, there are also external threats — currently, the resistance to Trump's agenda comes not only from the Republican Party but also from the Democratic Party. After losing the election, the Democratic Party no longer needs to defend the government, and although the Republican Party can still receive votes from Democrats, there is no doubt that the cost will be much higher.

Editor/lambor