美国经济状况良好，但在通胀问题上仍需进一步努力。经济增长强劲，劳动力市场健康。广义金融状况有所缓解，商业信心依然稳固。货币政策在将个人消费支出（PCE）通胀率从2022年夏季的7.2%峰值显著降低方面发挥了重要作用。尽管取得了这些积极进展，但通胀仍处于高位，并且近期在将通胀率恢复到2%的过程中进展并不均衡。Federal Reserve Chair Hammack indicated that based on her determination that monetary policy is currently close to a neutral stance, she tends to keep policy stable until more evidence shows that inflation is returning to the target path of 2%. The momentum of the USA economy and the recent high inflation data prompted her to raise the inflation forecast for next year. She believes her decision is a tough choice.
On Friday, Cleveland Fed President Beth M. Hammack made a statement regarding her vote at the FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve scheduled for December 17-18, 2024.
Below is the original statement:
The FOMC committee decided to lower the target Range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%-4.5%.
The economic situation in the USA is good, but further efforts are needed to address inflation issues. Economic growth is strong, and the labor market is healthy. Broad financial conditions have eased, and business confidence remains solid. Monetary policy has played an important role in significantly reducing the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation rate from a peak of 7.2% in the summer of 2022. Despite these positive developments, inflation remains high, and recent progress in returning inflation to the 2% target has been uneven.
Given the health of the labor market, restoring inflation to 2% in a timely manner remains an important goal. To achieve this, monetary policy needs to maintain a moderately restrictive stance for some time. Based on the judgment that monetary policy is currently near a neutral position, I tend to favor keeping the policy stable until we see more evidence that inflation is returning to the target path of 2%.
Considering the strong performance of recent economic data, the easing financial conditions, and my prediction that inflation will be above 2% in a healthy labor market in the coming year, I believe it is best to maintain the target Range for the federal funds rate at 4.5% to 4.75% at the December 2024 meeting.
The momentum in the economy and the recent high inflation data have led me to raise my inflation forecast for next year. Additionally, the balance of risks to the outlook seems to lean towards rising inflation rates. If inflation remains above 2% for too long, it might destabilize inflation expectations, thus increasing the difficulty of bringing inflation back to the target level.
I believe my decision is a difficult choice, and I am very grateful to my FOMC colleagues for the diverse perspectives provided during our in-depth discussions. I look forward to continuing to work with my FOMC colleagues to serve the public in the USA and seek the best path to achieve MMF policy goals in fulfilling our dual mission of maximizing employment and price stability.
At this week's FOMC meeting, although the rate cut was exactly the same as last time and part of the regular pace of action, it was surprising to the outside world that this time there were Federal Reserve policymakers voting against continued rate cuts. This is the second time since the initiation of this round of interest rate cuts in September that the Federal Reserve's decision did not receive unanimous support from all policymakers.
According to the resolution statement, at this week's FOMC meeting, the dissenting vote came from Cleveland Fed President Hammack, who wants to keep interest rates unchanged, advocating for a pause in rate cuts.
Analysts say that the unexpected dissent from officials at this meeting has created cracks in the unified front within the Federal Reserve.
The day before the Federal Reserve announced the rate cut, "New Federal Reserve News" reporter Nick Timiraos revealed divisions within the Federal Reserve. His article stated that this week's rate cut could end the first phase of the rate cut cycle, as doubts within the Federal Reserve are rising, with some officials wanting to see more concrete evidence that inflation is improving or the labor market is deteriorating before continuing with the rate cuts.
Editor/lambor
