With a limited number of trading days left to close out the 2024 year, one last question on the mind of investors is whether there will be a Santa Claus rally.
Here's a look at what Benzinga readers said in a new poll.
What Happened: The term Santa Claus rally was first used by Yale Hirsch in 1972 in the Stock Trader's Almanac.
The term is associated with the last five trading days of a year and the first two days of the following year and often see higher prices for numerous reasons.
This time of the year includes year-end portfolio rebalancing, holiday sales data and optimism for the new year ahead, which can often lead to strong returns for major stock market indexes.
"Do you think there will be a Santa Rally this year," Benzinga recently asked readers.
The results were:
- Yes, I expect a rally: 57%
- No, I don't think so: 43%
The poll was fairly evenly split with the majority saying they expect a Santa Claus rally to end 2024 and kick-start 2025.
Read Also: Tech Stocks Set For Strong Santa Rally As Wall Street Looks For An End To 'Regulatory Spider Web' In The Trump Era, Says Dan Ives
Why It's Important: The expectation for a Santa Claus rally comes with major stock market indexes enjoying a strong 2024 and could add to their year-to-date gains.
Here are the current year-to-date returns of three of the largest market index ETFs.
- SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY): +23.8%
- Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ): +28.1%
- SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:DIA): +12.7%
Data from the Stock Trader's Almanac found that from 1950 through 2022 a Santa Claus rally occurred 58 times, or 79.4% of the time. The average gain in the S&P 500 during the Santa Clause rally those years was 1.4%.
Benzinga recently shared that data from LPL Financial showed that December is the second-best month for S&P 500 returns since 1950, with an average return of 1.6%. December trails only November since 1950, with an average S&P 500 return of 1.8%. The strong December returns are often weighted to the second half of the month.
While many people will get presents to celebrate the Christmas holiday, investors could get the gift of higher stock prices based on historical returns and the Benzinga reader poll.
- Santa Rally: 10 S&P 500 Stocks That Outperform In December's Second Half
The study was conducted by Benzinga from Dec. 18 through Dec. 19, 2024, and included the responses of a diverse population of adults 18 or older. Opting into the survey was completely voluntary, with no incentives offered to potential respondents. The study reflects results from 241 adults.
Photo: Shutterstock
