Goldman Sachs released a report stating that it maintains a "Buy" rating for Henderson Land (01113) and SHK PPT (00016), with Target Prices of HKD 92 and HKD 41, respectively. Additionally, it maintains a "Sell" rating for HENDERSON LAND (00012) with a Target Price of HKD 19.5.

The report indicates that year-to-date, the rental Index for retail and office buildings in Hong Kong has decreased by 4% and 5%, respectively, and as of the end of October, the price Index shows a double-digit decline.

According to Goldman Sachs' estimates, following this trend, the capitalization rates for retail and office buildings in Hong Kong have risen by approximately 0.4 and 0.8 percentage points compared to 2023, reaching 6.7% and 4.7%, respectively. This has resulted in an average capitalization rate for Hong Kong Commercial Property (CRE) increasing by 0.6 percentage points to 5.7%, which is 1 percentage point higher than the average mortgage cap rate for developers of 4.7%.

Among Hong Kong developers, HENDERSON LAND shows a more aggressive forecast for the capitalization rate of Hong Kong Commercial Property, while Henderson Land and SHK PPT are more conservative. If we use the currently estimated cap rate of 5.7% as the upper limit, the value of the investment property portfolio fluctuates between an increase of 4% to a decrease of 24%, with an industry average impact of a decrease of 13%.