Jinwu Financial News | According to Huatai Securities Research, Kangfang Biotech (09926) evocimab defeated pabolizumab head-to-head in the HarmonI-2 study, and the data advantage was obvious: 1) PFS was significantly superior to the control group (11.14 vs 5.82 months, HR = 0.51) all subgroups benefited significantly; 3) Excellent safety, low incidence of drug withdrawal and fatal TRAE (1.5% and 0.5%), and patients with squamous cell cancer had no grade 3 bleeding events. Furthermore, evosimab showed good efficacy in phase II clinical trials such as perioperative NSCLC, head and neck squamous cancer, colorectal cancer, and TNBC.

According to the bank, the market is still waiting for the overseas potential of evosimab even after some competitor BD with the same mechanism. The bank believes that the data from the Harmoni-2 study is more accurate, that it is more likely that it will be successfully replicated domestically, and it is expected that it will continue to promote the realization of overseas potential along with the subsequent implementation of clinical trials with other indications.

The bank said that due to the influence of national negotiations and the pace of approval of non-oncology drugs, the bank lowered the company's revenue to 2.312/3.342/5.409 billion in 2024/2025/2026 (down 13.0/20.8/ 14.0% from the original value), the net profit to mother was (4.34) /0.071/0.648 billion yuan, and the corresponding EPS was (0.48) /0.08/0.72 yuan. Taking into account the potential long-term cash flow of evocimab in overseas markets, the bank raised the final value of DCF from 36 billion to 65.2 billion yuan, giving the company a target market value of 84.5 billion yuan (WACC 9.4%, sustainable growth rate of 3.0%), corresponding to a target price of HK$100.45 (previous value of HK$60.73).