赵耀庭对投资展望保持不变。The "inflation rebound" is an uncertainty mentioned by Invesco in the investment outlook, and this situation seems more likely to occur.
According to Zhithong Finance APP, Invesco's global market strategist for the Asia-Pacific region (excluding Japan), Zhao Yaoting, stated that this interest rate cut is a hawkish rate cut. On the positive side, this rate cut by the Federal Reserve exceeded the easing cycle of 1995-96, during which the USA avoided recession and subsequently experienced strong growth. Ultimately, the Federal Reserve's policy will be data-driven, so it needs to pay attention to data to gain insights into the monetary policy path. Additionally, Invesco needs to watch whether the dollar will be stronger than expected, as this could particularly pose unfavorable factors for Emerging Markets Assets.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. In response, Zhao Yaoting stated that the market evidently reacted instinctively to the unexpected dot plot forecast, but it must be noted that the dot plot can be very inaccurate. In December 2021, the dot plot from the Federal Reserve anticipated interest rate increases in 2022 would be less than 100 basis points, but the actual increases exceeded 400 basis points in 2022.
Zhao Yaoting's investment outlook remains unchanged. Invesco expects that easing policies will continue, but in a more gradual manner, and that the Global economy will re-accelerate next year. This means that the expectation is still for risk assets to perform well next year. Federal Reserve Chair Powell emphasized in yesterday's meeting the close watch on the future development of the labor market. Although easing policies are currently being implemented in an orderly manner, the Federal Reserve is clearly very concerned about the state of the labor market.
The "inflation rebound" is an uncertainty mentioned by Invesco in the investment outlook, and this situation seems more likely to occur. Particularly, if FOMC members predict the policy impact before the data shows the influence of the Trump administration's policies and take action to cool inflation, this needs to be monitored.