氧化铝成本压力或将缓解，业绩弹性有望充分释放。2024 年年初以来受国产矿山减产以及海外矿石发运扰动影响，矿石短缺导致氧化铝生产受限，氧化铝价格不断上行，电解铝环节利润受到挤压。展望2025 年，随着新增产能投放，铝土矿、氧化铝供应有望边际改善，公司氧化铝自给率相对较低，随着成本压力缓解，叠加云南来水偏丰提升产能利用率，公司业绩弹性较大。Key investment points:
A leading integrated green aluminum manufacturer in China. 1) Production capacity: The company is mainly engaged in the production and sale of bauxite mining, alumina, aluminum processing and aluminum carbon. The green aluminum scale is leading in the domestic scale. It has an annual production capacity of 1.4 million tons of alumina, 3.05 million tons of electrolytic aluminum, 1.6 million tons of aluminum processing per year, and 0.82 million tons of carbon products. All electricity comes from grid electricity, and clean energy accounts for more than 80%. 2) Performance: In the first 3Q of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 39.19 billion yuan, +31.7% year over year, and achieved net profit of 3.82 billion yuan to mother, +52.5% year over year, mainly due to a significant increase in the utilization rate of electrolytic aluminum production capacity.
Electrolytic aluminum production capacity is approaching the ceiling, and aluminum prices are likely to rise and fall under the new pattern of supply and demand. On the supply side, domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is approaching the ceiling, and overseas incremental releases are slow. Recycled aluminum is limited by scrap aluminum supply, and future supply growth will be limited; on the demand side, the NEV and power sectors will provide increased demand to make up for the drag in real estate demand. The supply and demand pattern for electrolytic aluminum is improving over a long period of time, and industry sentiment is expected to continue to rise.
The cost pressure on alumina may ease, and performance flexibility is expected to be fully released. Since the beginning of 2024, due to production cuts in domestic mines and disturbances in overseas ore shipments, alumina production has been limited due to ore shortages, alumina prices have continued to rise, and profits in the electrolytic aluminum industry have been squeezed. Looking ahead to 2025, with the introduction of new production capacity, the supply of bauxite and alumina is expected to improve marginally. The company's self-sufficiency rate of alumina is relatively low. As cost pressure eases, and abundant incoming water from Yunnan increases capacity utilization, the company's performance is more flexible.
Covered for the first time, a “gain” rating was given. Considering that the company's green aluminum scale is leading domestically, and the alumina self-sufficiency rate is relatively low, it is expected that the company's costs will fall due to marginal supply improvements in the alumina industry. Combined with abundant incoming water from Yunnan to increase the utilization rate of electrolytic aluminum production capacity, the company's performance flexibility is expected to be fully released. In the long term, as carbon taxes are increased and electrolytic aluminum is incorporated into the carbon trading market, the long-term value of the company's green aluminum will gradually become apparent. In 2024, the company paid out its first mid-term dividend. The dividend ratio increased steadily, and the long-term investment value was highlighted. The net profit for 24/25/26 is estimated to be 4.53/5.86/6.42 billion yuan, corresponding PE is 11/9/8x, and the estimated PEG for 25 is 0.4, which is lower than the average of comparable companies. For the first time, coverage is given an “gain” rating.
Risk warning: downstream demand for electrolytic aluminum falls short of expectations; raw material costs fluctuate greatly; overseas electrolytic aluminum production exceeds expectations
