民生证券表示，考虑到制冷剂景气度有望继续保持，制冷剂企业盈利或随着成交价格的走高而持续提升。该行指出，需求端，制冷剂下游的空调出口旺盛，内需也在“以旧换新”等政策催化下呈现增长态势，叠加制冷剂配额强约束，看好制冷剂价格现货保持强劲。In 2025, the prices of second and third-generation refrigerants are expected to maintain an upward trend.
The Ministry of Ecology and Environment recently announced the issuance of refrigerant quotas for 2025.
SWHY pointed out that the issuance of second-generation refrigerant quotas in 2025 meets expectations, while the overall situation of the third generation slightly exceeds expectations. The increase in quotas reflects the prosperity of the Industry, and under the framework of international conventions, the long-term logic of refrigerants still exists, with policy formulation anchored to supply and demand rather than prices, Bullish on the continued upward resonance of domestic and foreign trade prices of refrigerants.
Minsheng Securities stated that considering the expected continuation of prosperity in the refrigerant market, the profitability of refrigerant companies may continue to improve as Fill Prices rise. On the demand side, the strong export of Air Conditioners downstream of refrigerants and growth in domestic demand driven by policies like 'trade-in' show a positive trend, combined with the strong constraints of refrigerant quotas, Bullish on the continued strength of spot prices for refrigerants.
According to reports from GTJA, the second-generation refrigerant quota is being reduced as planned, and prices may see flexibility. The policy for third-generation refrigerants continues, with a Bullish outlook on the third-generation refrigerant cycle. With strong domestic comprehensive strength, a complete product matrix, and comprehensive technical reserves, production companies with high refrigerant quotas will benefit.
Hong Kong stocks related to refrigerants:
DONGYUE GROUP (00189): The company benefits from the rise in refrigerant prices. Based on the fluorosilicone Industry Chain, it maintains a certain intensity of R&D. In 2023, the company introduced 101 new product types, with a batch of high-end new materials entering the market testing or small batch supply phase, laying a solid foundation for enhancing the company's industrial height and competitiveness; 81 new authorized patents were added, with a total of 620 currently authorized patents; 22 standards were published, including 2 national standards, 2 industry standards, 1 local standard, and 17 group standards, bringing the total number of various standards published by the company to 127. In 2023, the company's R&D expenditure was approximately RMB 0.935 billion, accounting for 6.45% of its revenue.
