美格鲁肽（GLP-1）减重适应症目前已进入III 期临床阶段，公司将发挥在销售和渠道端长期积累的优势，有望在减重产品领域复制蔓迪的成功经验。The results of the 2024 National Health Insurance Catalogue were announced, and several of the company's products were successfully renewed/added. Among them, renewed products include the company's key products terbiao (recombinant human thrombocytopoietin) and enital (HER2 monoclonal antibody). New products include nafurafine hydrochloride oral tablets, which are used to improve pruritus in hemodialysis patients. The current round of health insurance negotiations focuses on global innovative drugs such as first-class chemicals and first-class biological products. The price of some domestic innovative drug negotiations is comparable to previous years, reflecting continued encouragement for domestically produced innovative drugs. It is expected that the company's contract renewal prices in Terbi Australia will be stable and superior to market expectations. Furthermore, according to the company's latest announcement, a total of 21,227,000 shares were purchased as treasury shares in the June 2024 purchase round and cancelled in the second half of the year, accounting for about 0.89% of the total number of shares issued as of December 17, and the profit level per share will further increase.
The company has abundant R&D pipeline reserves and is gradually entering the implementation stage. As of 2024H1, the company is developing 28 products, and R&D is progressing smoothly. Among them, Terbiao: CLDT Indication Phase III clinical trials have reached the end; SSS06:
The CKD anaemia indication NDA was accepted; Winlevi, an acne treatment; patients with acne vulgaris phase III bridged were enrolled; 608 (IL-17A antibody): phase III clinical work for moderate to severe psoriasis in adults was completed in 52 weeks, reaching the main end point. Paclitaxel oral solution was approved in September '24 to treat advanced gastric cancer. The Chinese phase III bridging clinical trial of clacoterone cream for acne vulgaris began in May 2024. It is expected that an NDA application will be submitted in 2025 and approved for marketing in 2026.
Meglutide (GLP-1) weight loss indications have now entered phase III clinical phase. The company will utilize the advantages it has accumulated over a long period of time on the sales and channel side, and is expected to replicate Mandy's successful experience in weight loss products.
The company's hair growth products have been growing for a long time, and Mandy's revenue is expected to accelerate in the second half of the year. As the first OTC minoxidil approved for marketing in China, Mandy (minoxidil tincture) has strong brand recognition in the domestic hair loss market, with a market share of 72% as of the end of '23. Mandy's new foams were sold on all platforms in the middle of the year, and the current sales promotion is focused on foams. According to the company's announcement, during the “Double Eleven” period in 2024, Mandy topped the multi-platform list, Mandy's main brand ranked first in the Tmall OTC brand GMV list, and Mandy Foam ranked first in the JD Pharmacy OTC Single Product List for GMV payments. The company has adopted diversified online and offline sales strategies around Mandy, and related revenue is expected to accelerate in the second half of the year.
Investment advice: The company's core product health insurance negotiations were successfully renewed, and the renewal price is expected to be relatively stable. The company has a rich R&D pipeline. It will gradually enter the harvest period in the next three years. At the same time, it will lay out the big health field earlier. Hair growth and dermatology products have a first-mover advantage. We expect that in 2024-2026, the company will achieve operating income of 8.863 billion yuan, 9.989 billion yuan, 11.407 billion yuan, and net profit to mother of 2.004 billion yuan, 2.212 billion yuan, and 2.476 billion yuan. The PE multiples corresponding to the current stock price are 6.8X, 6.2X, and 5.5X, respectively, maintaining an “incremental” rating.
Risk warning: Industry competition is intensifying, product sales are slowing down, R&D progress is slowing down, and industry policies fall short of expectations.
