大同证券认为，动力煤和焦煤短期价格虽处于低位。但动力煤整体受冬季需求旺盛支持，供需面相对平稳，短期煤价下行不改中长期稳定趋势；焦煤供给端出现回落，需求端则出现回暖，虽仍不足以改变当前市场买方模式，但稳楼市政策下，短期止跌回稳或希望较大。二级市场来看，煤炭板块近期波动较大，短期基本面不振情况下，受政策热点影响较大，但中长期红利属性优势仍在，无需过多担心。Coal stocks are among the biggest decliners; as of this report, SOUTHGOBI (01878) is down 9.09%, priced at 3.1 HKD; CHINA QINFA (00866) is down 5.93%, priced at 1.27 HKD; China Coal Energy (01898) is down 5.11%, priced at 9.09 HKD.
According to Zhitung Finance APP, coal stocks are among the biggest decliners; as of this report, SOUTHGOBI (01878) is down 9.09%, priced at 3.1 HKD; CHINA QINFA (00866) is down 5.93%, priced at 1.27 HKD; China Coal Energy (01898) is down 5.11%, priced at 9.09 HKD; MONGOL MINING (00975) is down 4.58%, priced at 7.29 HKD; China Shenhua Energy (01088) is down 3.46%, priced at 32.05 HKD; YANKUANG ENERGY (01171) is down 2.24%, priced at 8.72 HKD.
On the news front, according to China Coal Market Network, coal prices continue to fall due to factors such as daily consumption of thermal coal not meeting expectations, high inventory levels in the mid and downstream sectors, and high import coal volumes. On December 18, the "CCTD CNI Bohai Index Thermal Coal Spot Reference Price" for three specifications of 5500K, 5000K, and 4500K were priced at 787, 685, and 586 yuan/ton respectively, reflecting daily decreases of 5, 5, and 7 yuan/ton, and declines of 39, 40, and 47 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month. Sinolink believes that during the traditional peak season of electricity/coal annual agreement signing, the market is exhibiting price reduction pressure, with expectations that thermal coal market prices may decline in 2025, with the annual coal price center likely around 800-820 yuan/ton.
Datong Securities believes that while thermal coal and coking coal prices are currently low in the short term. Overall, thermal coal is supported by strong winter demand, with supply and demand relatively stable, so short-term coal price declines do not alter the medium to long-term stability trend; coking coal supply is declining while demand is recovering, although it is still insufficient to change the current buyer's market, under the steady property market policies, there is a greater chance of short-term stabilization after a drop. In the secondary market, over the recent period, the coal Sector has experienced large fluctuations; in the context of weak short-term fundamentals, the impact of policy hotspots is significant, but the advantages of medium to long-term bonus attributes still exist, so there is no need for excessive concern.
