According to Zhitong Finance APP, Guolian Securities released a Research Report, stating that looking ahead to 2025, the home appliance industry is focusing on policy-driven leading categories, maintaining a rating of "outperform the market". The trade-in policy is driving domestic sales to enter a growth period, and the scope and scale of subsequent subsidies are expected to expand, unleashing significant potential in industry renewal demand. Moreover, the positive impact of policies on product structure and average prices deserves attention, and the trend of improved profitability in the industry is confirmed. With the benefits of the "price range + channel" layout, leading companies covered by policies are expected to benefit even more, and an increase in market share is anticipated.

Guolian Securities' main points are as follows:

Review of the home appliance sector market.

The home appliance sector remains a familiar high-win-rate sector for the market, rising 24% cumulatively this year, ranking 4th among primary sectors, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 11 percentage points, winning 13 times over the past 18 years. The support of bonuses, exports, and Air Conditioner shipments exceeding expectations in the first half of 2024 have driven the sector's rise, and after mid-year adjustments, the enhanced policy in August led to a new round of market conditions.

White goods: National subsidy policy supports prices, showing considerable profit elasticity.

It is expected that the shipment volume of white goods for both domestic and foreign sales will continue to grow in 2025. Domestic sales of white goods will mainly focus on renewal demand, with a high natural growth lower limit, and ongoing policies are expected to bring incremental growth. The high growth of white goods exports in the past two years is primarily driven by market share logic, with OBM efforts in Emerging Markets and a manufacturing recession in Europe and the United States driving an increase in scale. Profit elasticity is a major highlight for white goods in 2025, with policies significantly raising average prices of products. In a relatively stable raw material price environment, the profit elasticity of domestic sales is expected to be considerable; on the export side, with a smaller exposure to the US market, leading companies possess good risk resistance capabilities.

Television: Focus on high-end upgrades, industry leaders seize opportunities.

In 2025, the global television market may continue to show weak recovery trends, with high-end and larger screens remaining important drivers of industry scale. Chinese brands are leading the upgrade of domestic and international products, with subsidies allowing industry leaders to capture domestic market share, making the future performance of black goods leaders worth anticipating. Additionally, amidst a balanced supply and demand environment and new interactions between upstream and downstream phases, fluctuations in TV panel prices have a diminishing impact on industry profits, and tariff risks for globally located leaders are controllable.

Two-Wheelers: Sales elasticity is considerable, and the market structure is rapidly concentrating.

The prosperity of the two-wheeler industry and the inflection point of leading operations are worth noting. With the implementation of new national standards and improved channel certifications, the national subsidy policy for two-wheelers in 2025 is expected to accelerate, and with the transition to new products, the willingness to stock channels is strengthened, leading to potential reversal of industry shipments and impressive growth. The new national standards will eliminate companies that do not meet production standards, further supporting the trend toward mid-to-high-end consumption under national subsidies, with strong channel strength for industry leaders, and structural concentration in the industry is anticipated.

Kitchen Appliances: Demand stabilizes, brand leaders benefit more.

In 2025, the terminal prosperity of kitchen appliances may gradually stabilize. Although demand related to new home renovations remains pressured, its share is gradually decreasing, reducing marginal pressure; additionally, considering that Cooker Hoods were entering a growth period 10-15 years ago, the current demand for upgrades is expected to increase correspondingly, and national subsidies are likely to accelerate their release. Structurally, the trend of upgrading mid-to-high-end products is certain, which is favorable for brand leaders; furthermore, the growth potential of categories like dishwashers, which still have significant penetration space in first- and second-tier cities, is worth emphasizing.

Emerging Small Appliances: Domestic sales prosperity boosts, while export markets expand.

Driven by product innovation and policy subsidies, domestic demand for emerging small appliances, represented by robotic vacuum cleaners, has significantly improved. It is expected that under the expansion of subsidies, the penetration rate of emerging small appliances will accelerate. On the export front, in 2024, overseas robotic vacuum sales are expected to continue slight growth in volume and price, with escalating competition in Europe. Overseas markets may see a return to the competitive strategy of adjusting prices to stimulate demand, with short-term marketing investments seizing market share, laying a stronger foundation for long-term growth.

Small Appliances in the kitchen: Continuous attention to Consumer recovery and upgrading categories.

Currently, the prediction for the domestic sales prosperity of kitchen Small Appliances in 2025 remains stable. With the share of Midea's Small Appliances brand recovering and the competition strategies of e-commerce platforms returning to normal, the high-pressure competitive situation is expected to ease. It is worth noting that the continuation of national subsidies is expected to drive the growth of upgraded categories such as water purifiers, coffee machines, and air purifiers, which feature 'high price and low penetration rate'. Additionally, under the backdrop of expanding domestic demand, the marginal improvement of long-tail categories is also expected, suggesting attention to corresponding leading segments.

Investment Suggestions: Regarding the symbols.

1) Leading White Goods: Midea Group Co., Ltd (000333.SZ), Gree Electric Appliances,Inc.of Zhuhai (000651.SZ), HAIER SMARTHOME (600690.SH), HISENSE HA (000921.SZ);

2) Leading Two-Wheeled Vehicles: YADEA (01585), Aima Technology (603529.SH);

3) Leading Black Goods, Kitchen Appliances, and Vacuum Cleaners: Hisense Visual Technology (600060.SH), TCL ELECTRONICS (01070), Hangzhou Robam Appliances (002508.SZ), Vatti Corporation (002035.SZ), Ecovacs Robotics (603486.SH), and Beijing Roborock Technology (688169.SH).

Risk Warning: 1) Policy implementation is below expectations; 2) Fluctuations in raw material prices and Exchange Rates; 3) External demand recovery is below expectations.