The Daily Bull and Bear

Daily Bull and Bear | Unfazed by the Federal Reserve's "hawkish rate cuts"! Tencent's bullish news boosted the Hang Seng Index, adding nearly 19,800 points to the bear market inventory yesterday; WEIMOB INC surged 35% yesterday, with warrants making a pro

Futu News · Dec 20 08:49

美联储“鹰派降息”后，恒指周四开盘一度下挫至19600点，午间传出苹果或将使用腾讯与字节AI，午盘腾讯拉涨带动港股上行，恒指一度回升至19800点上方。夜晚$恒指当月期货 (HSIcurrent.HK)$收报19730点，下跌55点或0.278%，低水23点。

截至周四收市，恒指跌0.56%报19752点，盘中高见19849，低见19591；大市成交1428.7亿港元，所有窝轮牛熊证合计成交120.42亿港元，占大市成交8.4%，其中好仓占比5.1%，淡仓占比3.3%；认购证成交35.68亿港元，认沽证成交15.54亿港元；牛证成交37.89亿港元，熊证成交31.32亿港元。

此外，所有窝轮牛熊证资金昨日净流出8728.28万港元，值得留意的是本周交易日轮证资金均为净流出。

恒生指数资金流向方面，好仓净流入1300万港元，淡仓净流出730万港元。

好仓资金流入前五正股与指数分别是： $恒生指数 (800000.HK)$ 、 $携程集团-S (09961.HK)$ 、 $阿里巴巴-W (09988.HK)$ 、 $微盟集团 (02013.HK)$ 、 $中国人寿 (02628.HK)$ 。

淡仓资金流入前五正股与指数分别是： $腾讯控股 (00700.HK)$ 、 $百度集团-SW (09888.HK)$ 、 $舜宇光学科技 (02382.HK)$ 、 $日经225 (.N225.JP)$ 、 $美元/日元 (USDJPY.FX)$ 。

牛熊街货比例

截至12月20日，恒指最新的牛熊街货比例为59:41。

相比上日，恒指19400-19600点近牛街货数量均下降，新增19800-19900点近熊街货26张。牛熊重货区均较上日未发生变化。

具体看牛熊证街货分布图中的数据，熊证街货重货区在20100-20199区间，该区间最新熊证数量为686张，较上一交易日增加66张;最多新增在19900-19999区间，该区间最新熊证数量为545张，较上一交易日增加443张。

牛证街货重货区和最多新增均在19300-19399区间，该区间最新牛证数量为1130张，较上一交易日增加324张。

轮证分析

昨日腾讯出利好拉动恒指午盘上扬，但收市依旧收跌0.56%。恒指牛熊证中$恒指摩通七甲熊1.P (64343.HK)$ 、 $恒指汇丰六四熊U.P (64279.HK)$ 最赚达40%；成交额最大的是 $恒指法兴七七牛R.C (62670.HK)$ 、 $恒指瑞银七乙熊R.P (64376.HK)$ ，成交达4亿港元。

个股方面， $微盟集团 (02013.HK)$ 昨日暴涨35%，认购证 $微盟花旗五三购A.C (26267.HK)$ 、 $微盟麦银五四购A.C (23544.HK)$ 大赚2.5倍以上；前日受美联储“鹰派降息”影响，美股指数均挫逾2.5%， $纳指法巴六乙熊I.P (49729.HK)$ 壕赚181.82%， $标指法兴六乙熊E.P (49719.HK)$ 大升164.54%。

点击查看牛熊证新手懒人包 >>

大行观点

摩根大通：日本央行亦于昨日宣布维持利率不变，符合市场预期。消息公布后， $美元/日元 (USDJPY.FX)$ 跌破155关口。市场关注日本央行明年加息空间以及美日息差走势。如看好美元将持续强势而日圆走弱，可留意美日购 $美日摩通五三购A.C (10412.HK)$ ；如认为美元或将从高位回而日圆转强落可参考美日沽 $美日摩通五六沽A.P (10359.HK)$ 。

中信证券： $汇丰控股 (00005.HK)$ 为资金焦点之一，近日股价走势呈“慢牛”格局后略为回吐，有好仓资金马上吼位入场。看好控股价“回气”后再度发力，可以留意汇控认购证 $汇丰信证五三购A.C (26198.HK)$ ，行使价77元，明年3月底到期，实际杠杆约13倍；相反，看淡控走势，可以留意汇控认沽证 $汇丰信证五九沽A.P (29386.HK)$ ，行使价62.5元，明年9月到期，实际杠杆约8倍。

编辑/Rocky

After the Federal Reserve's "hawkish rate cut", the Hang Seng Index opened on Thursday and briefly fell to 19,600 points. This afternoon, news emerged that Apple may use AI from TENCENT and ByteDance. In the afternoon session, TENCENT's rise drove the Hong Kong stocks upward, and the Hang Seng Index briefly rebounded to above 19,800 points. In the evening$HSI Futures Current Contract (HSIcurrent.HK)$It closed at 19,730 points, down 55 points or 0.278%, with a low of 23 points.

As of Thursday's close, the Hang Seng Index fell by 0.56% to 19,752 points, reaching a high of 19,849 and a low of 19,591 during the session; the market turnover was 142.87 billion Hong Kong dollars.Bull and bear certificates.The total turnover of all warrants was 12.042 billion Hong Kong dollars, accounting for 8.4% of the total market turnover, with long positions accounting for 5.1% and short positions for 3.3%; call options turnover was 3.568 billion Hong Kong dollars, put options turnover was 1.554 billion Hong Kong dollars; bull certificates turnover was 3.789 billion Hong Kong dollars, bear certificates turnover was 3.132 billion Hong Kong dollars.

In addition, all warrantsBull and bear certificates.Capital had a net outflow of 87.2828 million HKD yesterday. Notably, this week's trading days saw a net outflow of funds for warrants.

Regarding the capital trend of the Hang Seng Index, there was a net inflow of 13 million HKD for long positions and a net outflow of 7.3 million HKD for short positions.

The top five positive stocks and indices in terms of net inflow into bull positions are: $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ 、 $TRIP.COM-S (09961.HK)$ 、 $BABA-W (09988.HK)$ 、 $WEIMOB INC (02013.HK)$ 、 $CHINA LIFE (02628.HK)$ 。

The top five stocks and indices for the inflow of light warehouse funds are respectively: $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ 、 $BIDU-SW (09888.HK)$ 、 $SUNNY OPTICAL (02382.HK)$ 、 $Nikkei 225 (.N225.JP)$ 、 $USD/JPY (USDJPY.FX)$ 。

Bull-Bear Street Position Ratio

As of December 20, the latest bull-bear street position ratio of the Hang Seng Index is 59:41.

Compared to the previous day, the number of near bull positions in the Hang Seng Index in the 19400-19600 point range has decreased, while 26 near bear positions were added in the 19800-19900 point range. The heavy positions for both bulls and bears have remained unchanged from the previous day.

Looking specifically at the data in the bull-bear warrant street position distribution chart, the heavy position area for bear warrants is in the 20100-20199 range, with the latest number of bear warrants at 686, an increase of 66 from the previous trading day; the most added is in the 19900-19999 range, with the latest number of bear warrants at 545, an increase of 443 from the previous trading day.

The heavy position area and the most added for bull warrants are both in the 19300-19399 range, with the latest number of bull warrants at 1130, an increase of 324 from the previous trading day.

Warrant Analysis

Yesterday, TENCENT released bullish news which drove the Hang Seng Index up during the midday session, but it still closed down 0.56%. In the Hang Seng Index bull-bear warrants,$JP#HSI RP27111.P (64343.HK)$ 、 $HS#HSI RP2604U.P (64279.HK)$ The maximum profit reaches 40%; the highest trading volume is $SG#HSI RC2707R.C (62670.HK)$ 、 $UB#HSI RP2712R.P (64376.HK)$ , with a trading volume of 0.4 billion Hong Kong dollars.

In terms of individual stocks, $WEIMOB INC (02013.HK)$ Soar by 35% yesterday, subscription certificate. $CTWEIMO@EC2503A.C (26267.HK)$ 、 $MBWEIMO@EC2504A.C (23544.HK)$ Made over 2.5 times profit; the day before, influenced by the Federal Reserve's "hawkish rate cut", US stock indices fell more than 2.5%. $BP#NQ100RP2612I.P (49729.HK)$ Earned a remarkable 181.82%. $SG#S&P RP2612E.P (49719.HK)$ Increased significantly by 164.54%.

Click to viewNewbie's guide to Bull and Bear Certificates >>

Major Banks' Perspectives

JPMorgan: The Bank of Japan also announced yesterday to maintain the interest rate unchanged, in line with market expectations. After the news was released, $USD/JPY (USDJPY.FX)$ It has broken below the 155 level. The market is paying attention to the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike space next year and the trend of the USD/JPY interest rate differential. If bullish on the dollar continuing to strengthen while the yen weakens, one can note the USD/JPY call options. $JPUSYEN@EC2503A.C (10412.HK)$ ; if expecting the dollar to fall from a high point and the yen to strengthen, one can refer to the USD/JPY put options. $JPUSYEN@EP2506A.P (10359.HK)$ 。

CITIC SEC: $HSBC HOLDINGS (00005.HK)$ As one of the focal points of capital, recently the stock price showed a 'slow bull' pattern before slightly retracting, with good funds immediately entering the market. Bullish on the holding price potential for another surge after a 'breathing' period, one can pay attention to HSBC Holdings call warrants. $CI-HSBC@EC2503A.C (26198.HK)$ With an exercise price of 77 yuan, expiring at the end of March next year, the actual leverage is about 13 times; conversely, for those bearish on the trend, one can pay attention to HSBC Holdings put warrants. $CI-HSBC@EP2509A.P (29386.HK)$ With an exercise price of 62.5 yuan, expiring in September next year, the actual leverage is about 8 times.

Editor/Rocky

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