In the trading session of the 20th, attention should be focused on the following three points.

■ While assessing the firmness, be aware of filling the gap.

■ Billing Sys, upward revision for 24/12 operating profit 0.616 billion yen ← 0.489 billion yen.

■ Noteworthy material from the morning session: TOPPAN acquired the US company's flexible packaging business for 271.3 billion yen.

■ While assessing the firmness, be aware of filling the gap.

The Japanese stock market on the 20th is likely to start with some selling pressure, but the firmness at lower levels is expected to be a focus. In the US market on the 19th, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 15 dollars while the Nasdaq fell by 19 points. Following the FOMC, where the Federal Reserve indicated a slowdown in the pace of additional rate cuts, the sharp decline observed the previous day was viewed as excessive, leading to a buying back movement. However, the upward revision of the GDP for the July-September period and the decrease in the number of new unemployment claims indicated an expansion of economic activity, resulting in rising long-term interest rates, which became a burden on the market and caused a slowdown. The Chicago Nikkei 225 Futures (March) settlement value was 39,020 yen, down 60 yen from Osaka. The exchange rate is fluctuating around 157.50 yen per dollar.

The Nikkei average stock price is expected to see some initial selling as it aligns with the Chicago futures. The Dow Jones Industrial Average showed an increase of over 460 dollars at one point, but weakened towards the end, ending with a slight increase. The rebound against the previous day's significant drop has been sluggish, making it difficult to gauge the feeling of relief. The Nikkei 225 futures remained above 39,000 yen during the night session, indicating a likely focus on firmness, but active trading is likely to be restrained.

Yesterday, the Nikkei average stock price temporarily fell below the 200-day and 75-day lines but saw a buying back movement and recovered to the 25-day line level. If the 25-day line level is recognized as a Resistance, there may be a scenario where it targets around 39,000 yen to fill the gap left the day before. In the Forex market, the yen is depreciating, currently around 157 yen to the dollar. After the cautious stance on additional rate hikes expressed in the previous day's BoJ meeting, speculation about capital inflow targeting the Japan-US interest rate differential is likely to rise, along with a focus on export-related sectors such as Automobiles and Machinery.

While assessing the firmness, the approach will shift to targeting dips. Additionally, since the FOMC has passed in the USA, overseas investors will enter the Christmas holiday. As trading becomes thinner, there seems to be a significant possibility of being swayed by trades related to the Index. It is also likely to shift towards individual-driven trades, aiming for short-term fluctuations in stocks that have individual materials or thematic significance.

■ BillingSys, upward revision for 24/12 operating profit 0.616 billion yen ← 0.489 billion yen

BillingSys <3623> announced a revision of its financial estimates for the fiscal year ending December 2024. Revenue has been revised upward from 3.955 billion yen to 4.21 billion yen, and operating profit from 0.489 billion yen to 0.616 billion yen. Due to the continued depreciation of the yen and the upward trend of the Nikkei average stock price, there were significant fluctuations in stock prices and exchange rates, resulting in a steady number of transactions for the quick deposit service throughout the entire year. The smartphone multi-payment services "Wechat Pay" and "Alipay+" have seen the number of foreign visitors to Japan reach a record high due to the impact of yen depreciation, indicating a steady recovery in inbound demand.

■ Key materials for the first half of the trading session

・The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up (42342.24, +15.37)

・1 dollar = 157.30-40 yen

・The VIX Index is down (24.09, -3.53)

Active share buybacks

• The Tokyo Stock Exchange's request for corporate value enhancement

・TOPPAN <7911> acquired the soft packaging business of the American company for 271.3 billion yen.

・Murata Manufacturing <6981> produces MLCC in India to capture smartphone demand.

・Akebono Brake <7238> fund becomes the largest shareholder, appoints Mr. Nagaoka as president.

・Nippon Steel <5401> participates in iron ore development in Canada with Sojitz.

・Mitsubishi Chemical Group <4188> increases production of synthetic quartz powder, enhancing capacity at its Kyushu site.

・KADOKAWA <9468> Sony Group Corp acquires additional shares for 50 billion yen, becoming the largest shareholder.

・Maeda Kosen <7821> acquires Saikobo to expand sales channels for kindergartens and nurseries.

Hokkan HD <5902> group’s Hokkaido Can Company establishes a new production line in Gunma, increasing the beverage preform output by 20%.

Needswell <3992> automates financial report generation with AI, achieving 90% accuracy.

Kasumigaseki Capital <3498> starts construction on a "rental-type refrigerated warehouse" in Narashino City, Chiba.

Kyoei Security <7058> acquires Neo Amenity as a subsidiary.

Nissan <7201> negotiates a merger with Honda, focusing on completing Nissan's restructuring.

Okada Aiyon <6294> strengthens its sales and maintenance bases for construction machinery attachments.

NTT <9432> promotes the adoption of optical-electronic fusion devices, targeting major cloud companies.

SoftBank <9434> begins operation of an optical submarine cable, spanning 0.01 million km, connecting the Asia-Pacific region.

• NEC <6701> provides a generative AI utilization platform for regional healthcare.

• Sumitomo Electric Industries <5802> received an order for the second RF Battery in Niigata and Kashiwazaki.

• Gunze <3002> invests 2 billion yen in a circular factory, introducing de-inking equipment, etc., in 2027-2028.

• Kajima <1812> enables a 70% reduction in testing personnel, managing the compaction efficiency of dam body construction.

☆ Morning event schedule

< Domestic >

• 08:30 November national consumer price core index (year-on-year estimate: +2.6%, October: +2.3%).

・10:00 am Middle 1-year prime loan rate