Among the factors driving the rise in Indicators, building permits and the stock market are the main positive contributors, while ISM new Orders and the USA Treasury yield curve continue to weigh significantly on the Indicators. With the Indicators turning positive in November, the LEI no longer shows signs of an impending recession in the USA economy.
Data shows that the USA Leading Economic Index (LEI) has experienced its first positive growth since the November elections, the first time since February 2022, indicating that the outlook for the USA economy may have improved.
Among the factors driving the rise in Indicators, building permits and the stock market are the main contributors, while new Orders from ISM and the yield curve of US Treasury Bonds continue to exert significant drag on the Indicators.
With the Indicators turning positive in November, the LEI no longer shows signs that the USA economy is about to fall into recession.
Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, a senior manager at The Conference Board, stated that
"Overall, the rise of the LEI is a positive signal for future economic activity in the USA. The Conference Board currently predicts that the USA's GDP growth will reach 2.7% in 2024, but the growth rate may slow down to 2.0% by 2025."
Is this phenomenon related to the increase in market confidence after Trump's election? Analysis suggests that it remains to be seen. However, previous articles from Wall Street Watch stated that during Trump's first presidential term, the USA stock market continually set new highs; polls show that voters generally support Trump's economic proposals, which include further tax cuts and deregulation aimed at boosting corporate vitality and promoting economic growth. Since the results of this election emerged, the S&P 500 Index has continued to rise, with the market expressing strong expectations for Trump's upcoming economic policies.
Last week, Trump also promised business leaders at the NYSE during the bell-ringing ceremony that he would lead the USA to "unprecedented economic prosperity," reiterating his plans to revitalize the USA economy through a series of policies, particularly in areas such as tax cuts, Energy development, and stock markets, including incentives for companies to return to the USA, increasing Petroleum Extraction, stabilizing inflation, promoting the stock market, and strengthening cooperation with technology giants.
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