Looking back at 2024, the global economy continues to advance amidst multiple challenges and opportunities.

Geopolitically, the ongoing tense Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Israel-Palestine war have added significant uncertainty to the global economy. On the political front, strong fiscal stimulus under Biden's economic policies, the shift of the Federal Reserve from a rate hike cycle to a rate cut cycle, and the asset pattern changes brought by Trump's potential second victory, all profoundly impact market styles. Domestically, the policy stimulus at the end of September has also had a key effect on the economy. Furthermore, in the technology sector, the deep integration of AI technology and NVIDIA chips has triggered a new industrial revolution, bringing with it a wealth of investment opportunities.

In this spectacular year, which asset classes are leading the way globally? Let's take a look back together!

As of December 18, 2024:

• Bitcoin and Gold are in a bull market.

So far this year,$Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$the increase has exceeded 136%, ranking first among global assets, while$Gold Futures(FEB5) (GCmain.US)$the price has also risen over 25%, marking the largest increase in nearly a decade. The main driving forces behind the similar rises in both include geopolitical conflicts, uncertainties brought by the U.S. elections, and safe-haven demand under escalating inflation risks.

Regarding the future trend, investment bank Bernstein stated that the upward momentum for Bitcoin is just beginning. The bank expects that with clearer regulations and an increasing number of institutional investors, Bitcoin will rise to 0.2 million dollars by the end of next year. In the long term, Bitcoin will replace Gold as the largest reserve asset.

In Goldman Sachs' recent strategy layout, Gold's position as a hedging tool is particularly prominent, with expectations that its price will reach 3000 dollars per ounce by the end of 2025, over 14% higher than the current price, emphasizing that Gold is the preferred "Top Trade" for addressing inflation and geopolitical risks, driven by central bank demand and expectations of Fed interest rate cuts.

• The US stock market leads the world.

In 2024, the US stocks.$Star Tech Companies (LIST2518.US)$The Sector has risen over 40%, continuing the trend of 2023, continuing to lead the world, bringing$Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$an increase of nearly 30%, $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$an increase of over 23%, and$Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$An increase of over 12%!

Looking at the details, the USA economy has shown strong resilience this year, with GDP growth remaining robust, providing a solid foundation for the stock market. The GDP growth rate for the USA in the first quarter was 1.6%, 3% in the second quarter, and 2.8% in the third quarter, all indicating the robustness of economic growth. In addition, the push from AI technology has led to outstanding performance in technology stocks, particularly with the enthusiasm for AI-related stocks remaining high, becoming one of the main drivers of the market's rise.

Regarding the outlook for the US stock market next year, one of the most optimistic analysts about the outlook, John Stoltzfus, who is the Chief Investment Strategist at Oppenheimer Asset Management, currently has the highest target forecast for the S&P 500 Index. Stoltzfus expects that under strong economic conditions, the S&P 500 Index will maintain an unprecedented rise to 7100 points by the end of next year.

One major reason for his optimism is that the development of AI will provide a tremendous boost to the stock market, which he refers to as a "watershed" in technology and economic development. He believes that AI is showing its true potential in improving efficiency across critical fields. Companies in all 11 sectors of the US stock market can enhance productivity through AI, further meeting the demands of businesses and customers.

• The late rise of Chinese assets.

$Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$Rising over 18% this year, ranking sixth in the leaderboard, followed by.$FTSE China A50 Index (.FTXIN9.CN)$A rise of over 17%,$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$A rise of over 16%, sweeping away the gloom of the first half of 2024.

Market analysis believes that this is mainly because the Federal Reserve finally began formal interest rate cuts in September. At the same time, a series of heavy policies to stimulate the economy have been rolled out in mainland China, focusing on addressing hidden debt, risks in Real Estate, stabilizing the housing market, and the stock market, etc. This series of changes led to a comprehensive explosion of Chinese assets at the beginning of October.

Many foreign institutions believe that by 2025, China's economy will transition to a gradual and more sustainable growth model, focusing on the development of domestic consumption and high-end manufacturing. The stabilization and recovery of the fundamental economy will provide significant support for Chinese assets, attracting a continuous inflow of incremental funds.

At the same time, institutions such as Goldman Sachs believe that the implementation of policies in 2025 will boost corporate profit growth and the rise of the stock market. Policy-driven capital inflows may accelerate, maintaining an overweight investment recommendation for Chinese assets; in addition, the stock valuations of Chinese assets are relatively low and quite attractive. CITIC SEC further points out that the Chinese asset market is ushering in the starting moment of an annual-level 'marathon market', expecting related indices to significantly rise.

• The Japanese stock market regains the 'lost thirty years'.

The Japanese market has continued its upward trend from 2023, as the gradual shift toward mild inflation provides a solid foundation for steady economic growth. $Nikkei 225 (.N225.JP)$So far this year, it has risen a cumulative 16.79%, reaching historic highs alongside the TOPIX.

In addition, the Bank of Japan's ultra-loose monetary policy has provided liquidity support for the stock market. Meanwhile, the Japanese government has implemented a series of new measures to increase the stock market's attractiveness to individual investors and overseas funds, such as market mechanism reforms like NISA (tax exemption for small investment accounts), guiding more funds into the market. Furthermore, market attention is focused on whether rising prices and salary increases create a virtuous cycle, where wages rise faster than prices, thereby boosting consumption and further promoting production and improvements in corporate profitability.

Regarding the Japanese stock market in 2025, both Fidelity Investments and Goldman Sachs hold an optimistic view, predicting steady growth with continued attractiveness for stock market investments. Goldman Sachs further points out that the Japanese economy is expected to recover at an accelerated pace, with real GDP growth likely reaching 1.2%, and trends of expansion in consumption, exports, and capital expenditures.

In this context, the momentum of profit growth for Japanese companies is expected to continue. Additionally, Goldman Sachs predicts that the Bank of Japan will continue to push for the normalization of monetary policy in 2025, with policy rates potentially reaching 0.75%. At the same time, Japan has crossed a critical inflation threshold, forming a positive 'wage-price spiral,' which has profound implications for both the Japanese and global markets.

Looking back at 2024, how have the assets of mooers performed?

Have valuable rewards been gained because of making the right decisions.

Which stocks or industries do you think hold opportunities.

Come and show off your annual summary!

Editor/ping