On December 19, Glonghui reported that UOB economist Alvin Liew stated that the Bank of Japan has not finished raising interest rates yet, but the timing of future rate hikes is now expected to be influenced by wage growth next year and the clarity of Trump's policies. This suggests that while the possibility of a rate hike in January is not completely ruled out, it currently appears to be a low-probability event. Although the policy statement and Governor Ueda's press conference did not provide forward guidance, Ueda emphasized that wage increases in Japan by 2025 and considerations of Trump's policies are crucial for the next decision. UOB forecasts that the Bank of Japan will raise rates by 25 basis points to 0.5% in March, which is believed to be the terminal rate. However, there is a significant risk that the rate hike may be delayed to April or a later time.
大华银行:日本央行加息尚未结束,但下次加息的时机似乎更晚
UOB: The Bank of Japan's interest rate hikes are not yet over, but the timing of the next rate hike seems to be later.
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