股权交易或产生深远战略性影响。我们认为这次股权完成之后，双方将从原本的业务关系升级成为紧密的战略伙伴，股东输入的新增资金将用于邓肯公司改造升级，对羊绒制造设备进行更新，有利于提升邓肯的生产效率和技术水平，新股东的欧洲奢侈品牌背景兼公司客户的身份，展现了高端品牌对邓肯的认可度，未来在公司继续拓展客户资源等方面具备战略意义。Key investment points:
Chanel's BARRIE brand company plans to take 40% of Duncan's shares. Duncan Company, a wholly-owned subsidiary of New Zealand, plans to introduce investors to BARRIE through capital increase and share expansion. New Australia will first increase Duncan's capital by £9.562,255 million, and after completing the internal capital increase, introduce new shareholder BARRIE to subscribe for shares. The subscription amount is £18.8 million. After completing the transaction, BARRIE will acquire 40% of Duncan's shares.
BARRIE has been a luxury manufacturing company for over 100 years. BARRIE opened a manufacturing business in 1903 and rapidly developed into an industry benchmark. In 2012, BARRIE's customer Chanel acquired it, and two years later, it began to open its own luxury brand. BARRIE has a business relationship with Duncan, and Duncan sells products to BARRIE.
Equity transactions may have a profound strategic impact. We believe that after the completion of this shareholding, the two sides will upgrade their original business relationship to a close strategic partner. The additional capital input from shareholders will be used to transform and upgrade Duncan's cashmere manufacturing equipment, which is conducive to improving Duncan's production efficiency and technical level. The new shareholders' European luxury brand background and status as the company's customer shows the recognition of Duncan by high-end brands, and is of strategic significance for the company to continue to expand customer resources in the future.
Raw material prices are still low, waiting for the market to pick up. The latest Australian wool raw material price fell 10.6% compared to the same period last year. We believe that the low price of raw materials indicates that downstream demand is still weak. The macro-retail environment at home and abroad has affected upstream order levels and prices. It is expected that domestic and export customers will gradually enter the new year to place orders. After demand picks up, industry orders and prices may recover.
Profit forecasting and valuation. Considering that raw material prices are still low and domestic/overseas macro-demand has yet to recover, we maintain our forecast net profit of 0.433, 0.495, and 0.588 billion yuan respectively for 2024-2026, which is 13-15 times PE in 2024, with a reasonable valuation range of 7.70-8.89 yuan, with a “superior to the market” rating.
Risk warning. The risk of sharp fluctuations in raw material prices, the risk of exchange rate fluctuations, the risk of downstream customer order fluctuations, the risk of new customer expansion falling short of expectations, and the risk of changes in international trade policies.
