投资建议：雷鸟创新背靠大厂，具备创新优势，已发布多款 AI眼镜产品，在国内市场份额领先；同时与博士眼镜合作，打通AI 眼镜零售的最后一公里。考虑到TCL 电子整体进入盈利修复通道，同时预计公司持股11.5%的雷鸟创新，其AI 眼镜业务市场份额领先，有望充分受益AI 产业爆发，我们给予公司25 年12xPE，维持24-26 年盈利预测，预计2024-2026 年，EPS 分别为0.56/0.68/0.76 港元，同比+90%/+21%/+13%。维持“增持”评级，维持目标价8.16 港元。Introduction to this report:
Thunderbird Innovation, a subsidiary of TCL Electronics, is backed by major manufacturers and has released a number of AI eyewear products, leading the domestic market share; it is expected to fully benefit from the explosion of AI glasses. Increase your holdings.
Key investment points:
Investment advice: Thunderbird Innovation is backed by large manufacturers and has innovative advantages. It has released a number of AI glasses products, leading the domestic market share; at the same time, it has cooperated with Dr. Glasses to open up the last kilometer of AI glasses retail. Considering that TCL Electronics as a whole has entered the profit recovery channel, and the company is expected to hold 11.5% of the shares in Thunderbird Innovation, its AI glasses business market share is expected to fully benefit from the AI industry explosion. We have given the company 12xPE for 25 years to maintain the 24-26 profit forecast. It is estimated that in 2024-2026, EPS will be HK$0.56/0.68/0.76, respectively, +90%/+21%/+13%. Maintain the “Overweight” rating and maintain the target price of HK$8.16.
AI has been empowered and implemented, and glasses have become the best hardware carrier for AI. AI glasses can input and output sound, language, and visual signals very naturally and directly. Based on a wearable experience that frees hands and is highly integrated with vision, combining AI with glasses is undoubtedly the most reasonable solution for AI in wearable devices at this stage. Meta Ray-Ban sells well, and the development of lightweight AI glasses has become an industry consensus. When AI glasses are integrated with AR technology, the price becomes popularized, and they have some brand/fashion attributes, and are expected to become popular by replacing traditional glasses.
As of October '24, Meta Ray-Ban has sold over 1 million copies worldwide.
Supported by multi-modal+intelligent interaction, AI glasses are more practical. Currently, mainstream smart glasses products can be simply divided into AR series and AI series. With the support of AI, in addition to a variety of interaction methods, smart glasses have also added general problem solver functions, built learning, reasoning, decision-making, and execution capabilities based on large language models, and have become productivity tools based on entertainment tools. As an integrated wearable device, they have achieved multi-functional integration of headsets, watches, maps, glasses, sunglasses, AI agents, etc., to achieve the function “1=N”.
Thunderbird Innovation relies on the advantages of TCL's major manufacturers to explore new models in the AI glasses business. Thunderbird Innovation is incubated by TCL Electronics. The company's core team comes from TCL, DJI, Meta, and ByteDance, and the innovation advantages are obvious. After multiple rounds of financing, we expect TCL Electronics's shareholding ratio to be around 11.5%. On August 29, 2024, Thunderbird Innovation and Dr. Glasses announced the establishment of a joint venture. The two companies will jointly develop a new generation of AI intelligent interactive glasses. Thunderbird Innovation and Doctor Glasses have carried out deep integration in terms of capital, technology, market channels, brands, etc., to achieve resource sharing and complementary advantages.
Risk warning: risk of uncertainty in AI technology implementation; risk of uncertainty in new product release.
