摩根大通指，大部分該行所研究覆蓋的本港銀行均是新世界發展的主要銀行，假設全數將貸款予新世界的貸款降級至「第三階段」，按該行壓力測試，估計東亞銀行(00023.HK)、恒生銀行(00011.HK)及中銀香港(02388.HK)其2025年的盈利或拖累達23%、18%及10%。Yesterday, there were reports that NEW WORLD DEV (00017.HK) recently sent a letter to Banks seeking a waiver for violating Financial Indicators, with the reason being that the net debt-to-assets ratio exceeded 100%. NEW WORLD responded last night (18th) stating that it was aware of some rumors and speculations circulating online about the company, and reiterated that it would fully comply with all disclosure requirements, providing timely and appropriate information to investors and Shareholders.
JPMorgan published a report stating that just this alone, combined with the company's recent sudden change in CEO, is unlikely to alleviate investors' concerns about the company's liquidity pressure, and NEW WORLD DEV's stock price has already plummeted 56% this year, hitting new lows. The bank reiterated its 'Shareholding' investment rating and a Target Price of 5.6 HKD for NEW WORLD DEV, as it believes the company will only prioritize deleveraging.
Regarding Hong Kong Banks, JPMorgan indicated that although the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates, Commercial Property loans account for 16% of total loans in Hong Kong. As of the end of June this year, NEW WORLD's bank loans amounted to 127 billion HKD, accounting for 8.3% of Hong Kong's Commercial Property loans, with 73% being unsecured. JPMorgan expects that Hong Kong Banks will require collateral for these unsecured loans. Due to negative media coverage and heightened liquidity risks, it is anticipated that Banks will categorize NEW WORLD's loans as stage two or stage three.
JPMorgan indicated that most of the Hong Kong Banks covered by the bank are major banks for NEW WORLD DEV. Assuming all loans to NEW WORLD are downgraded to 'stage three,' their stress tests estimate that BANK OF E ASIA (00023.HK), HANG SENG BANK (00011.HK), and BOC HONG KONG (02388.HK) could see their 2025 earnings impacted by 23%, 18%, and 10% respectively.
Among Hong Kong Banks, the bank is more Bullish on HSBC (00005.HK) and Standard Chartered (02888.HK), expecting that NEW WORLD's debt will have a smaller impact on their earnings, and the bank estimates that the potential drop space for HANG SENG could be larger.
