销售转化率与首开去化率维持高水平，2023 年公司新增货值销售转化率为39%，相较于2020 年提升24pct，2023 年公司首开去化率高达82%，为近五年新高。销售排名攀升，在地产行业下行周期中，公司全口径、自投、权益销售排名逆势攀升，2024H1 全口径、自投、权益排名分别提升至3/6/6。Key investment points:
Central enterprises are the genetic quality benchmark, and their operations are steady and resilient. The company was founded in Hangzhou in 1995 and has become a leading quality benchmark for real estate development in China. The company has successively introduced Jiulong Cang Group, CCCC Group, etc. as strategic shareholders. Currently, the largest shareholder is CCCC Group. In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 131.4 billion yuan, an increase of 3.3% year on year; net profit to mother after deducting preferred stock dividends was 3.09 billion yuan, an increase of 19.6% year on year.
Deeply involved in core high-tier cities, sales rankings bucked the trend. Deeply involved in core high-tier cities. Since 2020, both Tier 1 and 2 sales values have accounted for more than 70%, and 2024H1 has increased to 79%. The product has premium space. The average sales price of self-funded projects in 2023 reached 28,334 yuan/m2, which is higher than the average of core cities.
The sales conversion rate and initial removal rate remained at a high level. The sales conversion rate for the company's new product value in 2023 was 39%. Compared with an increase of 24 pcts in 2020, the company's initial opening and elimination rate reached 82% in 2023, a new high in the past five years. Sales rankings have risen. In the downward cycle of the real estate industry, the company's full-caliber, self-investment, and equity sales rankings have bucked the trend, and the 2024H1 full-caliber, self-investment, and equity rankings have risen to 3/6/6, respectively.
The leader in the contract construction business industry, with sufficient reserves of saleable value. Greentown Management Holdings, the holding subsidiary of the company, is the first stock in China's contract construction industry. With its first-mover advantage and good reputation, it has a market share of more than 20% for eight consecutive years, and is a stable leader in the industry. In 2023, Greentown Management's operating income and net profit to mother were 3.3 billion yuan and 0.97 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 24.3% and 30.8%, respectively, and a net sales margin of 29.7%. The share of commercial contract construction in Greentown's management and construction business has increased, and the saleable value reserves are sufficient, providing impetus for the company's profit growth.
The financial structure is stable and the structure is healthy, and financing costs continue to decline. The company's financial level is healthy. The balance ratio, net balance ratio, and short cash debt ratio after deducting advance payments in the 2024 mid-term report were 69.2%, 67.2%, and 2.1, respectively. Debt structure optimization. 2024H1 accounts for 23.8% of debt maturing within one year, less than 25% for three consecutive years. A total of 2.26 billion yuan of corporate bonds were repurchased, and bond yields declined steadily; in 2024H1, foreign debt replacement of US$0.817 billion was completed, keeping overseas financing channels open. Since the introduction of CCCC Group, comprehensive financing costs have continued to decline, and 2024H1 has dropped to 4.0%.
Profit forecast and investment advice: The company's main business revenue for 2024-2026 is expected to be 135.2/139.5/142 billion yuan, and net profit to mother is 2.772/3.122/3.662 billion yuan, corresponding PE is 7.9/7.0/6.0. Since Greentown China relies on shareholders of central enterprises, established housing enterprises have a good reputation; focusing on core cities, high turnover and sufficient land storage; high turnover and sales rankings have bucked the trend; the contract construction business is stable in the lead, with sufficient saleable value reserves; the debt structure is reasonable and healthy, and financing costs continue to drop. It is expected that in the context of the gradual transmission of easing policy effects in Tier 1 and 2 core cities, Greentown China can seize opportunities for industry restoration and give a “buy” rating for the first time.
Risk warning: the tightening of the financing environment exceeds expectations, the tightening of real estate regulation policies exceeds expectations, sales and settlement fall short of expectations
