The Federal Reserve's guidance is hawkish, the Dow plunged by a thousand points, marking the longest consecutive decline since 1974, and bonds, Gold, and the cryptocurrency market have also collapsed.

wallstreetcn · 05:01

美联储大幅上调未来利率预期中位数，明年或只降息两次，美联储主席鲍威尔称更加接近中性利率。美股、美债、黄金、比特币全线重挫，道指十连跌，美元大涨。FOMC声明后，主要资产走势简单暴力，一路下跌或是上涨。

12月18日周三，美联储12月利率决议来袭。本次会议引发市场巨震。

美联储决议公布前

美联储决议声明发布前，美股日内上涨，美债收益率日内下跌，黄金下跌：

标普500指数涨0.19%，道指涨170点涨幅0.39%，纳指涨0.19%。
美国10年期国债收益率跌0.99个基点，报4.3889%；两年期美债收益率跌2.12个基点，报4.2236%。
美元指数回落至107点下方，逼近106.950点附近的平盘位置。
现货黄金跌0.43%，逼近日低2633.14美元。

美联储决议公布后

最新出炉的点阵图显示，美联储官员们大幅上调未来政策利率目标区间的中位数，对明年和后年的通胀预期也显著上调。

其中，对2025年年底政策利率目标区间的中位数为3.9%，9月预计为3.4%；对2026年年底的预期中位数为3.4%，9月预计为2.9%；预计2027年年底为3.1%，此前预计2.9%；预计长期联邦基金利率为3.0%，此前预计2.9%。

通胀方面，预计2025年核心PCE通胀为2.5%，此前料为2.2%；预计2026年核心PCE通胀为2.2%，此前料为2.0%。

美联储官员们对未来指引鹰派，暗示明年只会降息两次，美债收益率和美元短线拉升，金价和美股跳水：

美国三大股指悉数下跌，纳斯达克100指数跌0.8%，生物科技指数跌1.5%，银行指数跌0.7%。
两年期美债收益率短线反弹将近8个基点，转而日内涨约4个基点、逼近4.29%。美国10年期国债收益率短线反弹4个基点，从日低附近的4.38%下方转而涨至日高4.4245%。
彭博美元指数短线从1290点附近拉升至1295.40点上方，日内整体涨约0.5%。
黄金短线下挫15美元，刷新日低至2621.15美元，日内跌约1%。

鲍威尔新闻发布会

美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会时表示，12月决议声明意味着，处于或接近放慢降息节奏、或暂停降息步伐。我们更加接近中性利率。利率调整的过程中，处于一个新的阶段。今后需要看到通胀进展，不会对几个月的通胀数据反应过度。根据美国国会山现存立法，美联储不被允许拥有比特币，美联储不寻求为了能够掌握比特币而修改法律。

鲍威尔新闻发布会期间，美股、美债、黄金、比特币跌幅均有不同程度的扩大，美元涨幅扩大：

标普500指数跌约1%，道指下跌约400点、跌幅扩大至0.9%，纳指跌1.1%，纳斯达克100指数跌1.3%，罗素小盘股指跌1.2%，生物科技指数跌2.6%，半导体指数跌0.8%，银行指数跌1.8%。特斯拉跌2.8%，苹果跌0.67%。
美国2、3、5年期国债收益率涨幅扩大至10个基点。
彭博美元指数涨约0.8%，突破1300点关口。欧元兑美元跌1.1%，报1.0376。英镑兑美元下跌1%，报1.2582。
现货黄金下跌1.4%，在美联储主席鲍威尔讲话期间刷新日低至2610美元下方。
比特币跌超5%，跌穿10.1万美元。

新闻发布会结束后

鲍威尔新闻发布会过后，美股跌幅扩大，虽截至收盘时一度有反弹，但最终仍接近收于日低。

道指暴跌千点，为连续第十个交易日下跌，这是1974年以来的最长连跌。根据FactSet的数据，道指曾在1974年经历连续11天下跌，除此以外，道琼斯指数从未出现过连续10天或更长时间的下跌。

截至收盘，道指下跌超过1100点，跌幅近2.6%，成分股高盛和亚马逊跌超4%表现最差，英伟达回吐日内全部涨幅、收盘跌超1%。标普500指数跌近3%，纳指跌超3.5%。热门股特斯拉一度跌10%、收跌超8%，博通跌超6.9%。

以下为美股当日走势，美联储声明后几乎呈直线下挫态势：

以下为周三美债收益率走势：

以下为周三美元走势：

以下为周三黄金走势：

以下为周三比特币走势：

The Federal Reserve has significantly raised its median future interest rate expectations, with only two rate cuts anticipated next year. Fed Chairman Powell stated that we are closer to a neutral interest rate. U.S. stocks, bonds, Gold, and Bitcoin all suffered significant downturns, with the Dow experiencing ten consecutive declines, and the dollar rising sharply. After the FOMC statement, the trends of major Assets were intense and volatile, either continuously falling or rising.

On Wednesday, December 18, the Federal Reserve's December interest rate decision is coming. This meeting has caused a huge shock in the market.

Before the Federal Reserve's decision is announced.

Before the announcement of the Federal Reserve's decision, U.S. stocks rose during the day, U.S. Treasury yields fell during the day, and Gold decreased:

The S&P 500 Index rose 0.19%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 170 points, an increase of 0.39%, and the NASDAQ rose 0.19%.
The U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield fell by 0.99 basis points, reported at 4.3889%; the two-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 2.12 basis points, reported at 4.2236%.
The USD fell below 107 points, approaching the flat position near 106.950 points.
Spot Gold fell by 0.43%, approaching a daily low of $2633.14.

After the Federal Reserve's decision was announced.

The latest released dot plot shows that Federal Reserve officials have significantly raised the median target range for future policy interest rates and have also notably increased inflation expectations for next year and the year after.

Specifically, the median target range for the policy interest rate at the end of 2025 is projected to be 3.9%, up from 3.4% in September; the expected median for the end of 2026 is 3.4%, up from 2.9% in September; the estimate for the end of 2027 is 3.1%, revised up from 2.9%; the long-term federal funds rate is anticipated to be 3.0%, up from a previous estimate of 2.9%.

Regarding inflation, the core PCE inflation for 2025 is expected to be 2.5%, revised from a previous estimate of 2.2%; the core PCE inflation for 2026 is projected at 2.2%, up from a previous estimate of 2.0%.

Federal Reserve officials are hawkish in their forward guidance, suggesting only two interest rate cuts next year, leading to a short-term spike in U.S. Treasury yields and the USD, while gold prices and U.S. stocks sharply declined:

All three major U.S. stock indices fell, with the NASDAQ 100 Index down 0.8%, the biotechnology index down 1.5%, and the bank index down 0.7%.
The two-year U.S. Treasury yield rebounded nearly 8 basis points in the short term, instead rising about 4 basis points on the day, approaching 4.29%. The U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield short-term rebounded 4 basis points, rising from the day's low near 4.38% to a daily high of 4.4245%.
The Bloomberg Dollar Index short-term rose from around 1290 points to above 1295.40 points, an overall increase of about 0.5% for the day.
Gold fell sharply by $15, hitting a daily low of $2,621.15, down about 1% for the day.

Powell's press conference.

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated at a press conference that the December decision statement means that the pace of interest rate cuts is slowing or pausing. We are closer to a neutral interest rate. The rate adjustment process is in a new phase. Future inflation progress needs to be observed, and there will not be an excessive reaction to a few months of inflation data. According to existing legislation on Capitol Hill, the Federal Reserve is not allowed to hold Bitcoin, and it does not seek to modify laws in order to control Bitcoin.

During Powell's press conference, the declines in U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds, Gold, and Bitcoin have all expanded to varying degrees, while the USD has strengthened:

The S&P 500 Index fell about 1%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped around 400 points, with a decline of 0.9%, the NASDAQ dropped 1.1%, the NASDAQ 100 Index fell 1.3%, the Russell Small Cap Index declined 1.2%, the Biotech Index fell 2.6%, the Semiconductors Index dropped 0.8%, and the Banks Index decreased by 1.8%. Tesla fell 2.8%, and Apple dropped 0.67%.
The yields on U.S. 2-, 3-, and 5-Year Treasury Notes expanded by 10 basis points.
The Bloomberg USD Index rose by about 0.8%, breaking through the 1300-point mark. The euro fell 1.1% against the dollar, reported at 1.0376. The British Pound fell 1% against the dollar, reported at 1.2582.
Spot Gold dropped 1.4%, hitting a new daily low below $2,610 during Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech.
Bitcoin fell over 5%, dropping below $0.101 million.

After the press conference.

After Powell's press conference, U.S. stocks expanded their declines, although there was a brief rebound before closing, they ultimately near the day's low.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted by a thousand points, marking the tenth consecutive trading day of decline, the longest losing streak since 1974. According to FactSet, the Dow experienced 11 consecutive days of decline in 1974; aside from that, the Dow Jones Index has never suffered a decline for ten days or longer.

At the close, the Dow fell over 1,100 points, a decline of nearly 2.6%, with component stocks Goldman Sachs and Amazon dropping over 4%, the worst performers, while NVIDIA retraced all its intraday gains, closing down over 1%. The S&P 500 Index fell nearly 3%, and the NASDAQ index dropped over 3.5%. Popular stock Tesla at one point fell by 10% and closed down over 8%, while Broadcom dropped over 6.9%.

The following is the performance of U.S. stocks on that day, which showed a nearly straight down trend following the Federal Reserve's statement:

The following is the trend of U.S. Treasury yield on Wednesday:

The following is the USD trend for Wednesday:

The following is the Gold trend for Wednesday:

The following is the Bitcoin trend for Wednesday:

The translation is provided by third-party software.

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美联储指引鹰派，道指暴跌千点，创1974年来最长连跌，美债黄金币圈也崩了