When close to half the companies in the United States have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") above 19x, you may consider Caleres, Inc. (NYSE:CAL) as a highly attractive investment with its 5.3x P/E ratio. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly reduced P/E.
Caleres' earnings growth of late has been pretty similar to most other companies. It might be that many expect the mediocre earnings performance to degrade, which has repressed the P/E. If not, then existing shareholders have reason to be optimistic about the future direction of the share price.
Does Growth Match The Low P/E?
Caleres' P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very poor growth or even falling earnings, and importantly, perform much worse than the market.
Taking a look back first, we see that there was hardly any earnings per share growth to speak of for the company over the past year. However, a few strong years before that means that it was still able to grow EPS by an impressive 640% in total over the last three years. So we can start by confirming that the company has done a great job of growing earnings over that time.
Shifting to the future, estimates from the four analysts covering the company suggest earnings growth is heading into negative territory, declining 4.1% per year over the next three years. Meanwhile, the broader market is forecast to expand by 11% each year, which paints a poor picture.
In light of this, it's understandable that Caleres' P/E would sit below the majority of other companies. However, shrinking earnings are unlikely to lead to a stable P/E over the longer term. There's potential for the P/E to fall to even lower levels if the company doesn't improve its profitability.
The Final Word
We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.
We've established that Caleres maintains its low P/E on the weakness of its forecast for sliding earnings, as expected. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in earnings isn't great enough to justify a higher P/E ratio. Unless these conditions improve, they will continue to form a barrier for the share price around these levels.
Before you settle on your opinion, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Caleres that you should be aware of.
If P/E ratios interest you, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
