According to Zhitong Finance, OPEC representatives stated that when Trump takes office in the White House, OPEC+ is cautious about the renewed increase in US oil production, as more US oil will further erode OPEC+'s market share and hinder OPEC's efforts to support oil prices.

OPEC+'s oil production accounts for about half of the world's oil production. Earlier this month, the organization postponed plans to increase production until April next year. Due to weak demand and a surge in output from the USA and some other non-OPEC+ oil-producing countries, the organization extended some production cuts until the end of 2026.

Since the start of the Shale Oil boom, OPEC has a history of underestimating the growth of US production. During the shale boom, the USA became the world's largest oil producer. The current US oil supply accounts for one-fifth of the global total. Some representatives are now more Bullish on US oil production, citing Trump as a reason behind this. Following an election centered on the economy and cost of living, Trump's transition team developed a broad package plan to relax regulations on the energy sector.

A representative from a US ally OPEC+ member country said: "I think Trump's return is good news for the oil industry and may mean less strict environmental policies. However, we may see a rise in US production, which is not good for us."

Further increases in US production will hinder OPEC and its allies like Russia from increasing production starting in April 2025 without risking a drop in oil prices. A decline in oil prices would harm OPEC+ countries that rely on oil revenue. Trump aims to boost production; he promised to lower energy prices and inflation during his campaign.

Richard Bronze, head of geopolitics at Energy Aspects, stated: "This could be a difficult situation for both sides. OPEC+ faces significant challenges from rising US production, which undermines the organization's influence."

USA's production will rise in 2025.

Following a series of production cuts since 2022, OPEC+ reduced capacity by 5.85 million barrels per day. According to OPEC's own data, from 2022 to 2024, total oil production in the USA increased by 11%, reaching 21.6 million barrels per day, while just 11 years ago, production in the USA was about 10 million barrels per day.

According to calculations based on data from the International Energy Agency, OPEC+'s production accounts for 48% of Global supply, the lowest level since its establishment in 2016, when its market share was 55%.

Earlier this month, Igor Sechin, head of Russia's largest oil producer Rosneft, said that OPEC+'s decisions to cut production in 2016 and 2020 have helped the USA's shale industry become a major exporter.

Another OPEC+ insider said that Trump's policies might support oil demand, which would benefit OPEC, even though the prospects of increased US oil supply are concerning. The insider stated: 'The main threat to OPEC+ is that under Trump's leadership, US oil production increases, reducing dependence on imported oil and boosting exports.'

In a report last week, OPEC projected that total US oil supply will grow by 2.3% next year and again lowered its expectations for Global oil demand growth. The International Energy Agency, however, expects US oil production to grow by 3.5% next year, faster than OPEC's forecast. SEB's chief commodity Analyst Bjarne Schieldrop stated: 'They acknowledge that the USA will take a larger piece of the pie.'

Crude Oil Product supply is excessive, and the increase in US production is likely limited.

Trump indeed vowed to 'extract, extract, extract' oil, but this vow is about to conflict with the Global Crude Oil Product supply surplus—this surplus will ultimately suppress record-high Shale Oil production.

Some Industry executives and Analysts do not believe that Crude Oil Product supply in the USA will significantly increase during Trump's presidency. The head of Exxon Mobil's upstream division stated that Shale Oil producers focus on economic benefits, known as capital discipline, and production is expected to increase only when profits are made.

If prices fall, this scenario is unlikely to happen. Developing new oil fields takes years, so Trump's promise to permit drilling in new places is unlikely to produce new oil in the short term. Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and former White House official, stated, "The USA has no idle capacity."

Before his second term, oil production in the USA set records for two consecutive years. Against this backdrop, Analysts and traders surveyed by Institutions expect that from the end of this year to 2025, USA's oil production will only increase by 0.251 million barrels per day, the slowest pace since the production cuts caused by the pandemic in 2020.

Trump has little means to change this. Opening new federal lands for exploration takes time, and some of his other proposals - such as the trade war with china - are widely viewed as bearish for oil, as they will weaken demand for the commodity.

Ed Morse, a senior adviser at commodity trading firm Hartree Partners LP, said: "From opening federal lands to providing auctions, to allowing companies to bid, to exploring, discovering oil, and then building infrastructure for it, there are delays. Most of the production growth from Trump's policies will appear after his term ends."

So far, independent oil producers who have contributed most to the shale oil boom over the past decade have no plans to fundamentally alter their drilling activities after the election. Diamondback Energy (FANG.US) and devon energy (DVN.US) expect production growth rates of 2% or lower in 2025, while eog resources (EOG.US) and occidental petroleum (OXY.US) expect activity to remain stable, with occidental petroleum CEO Vicki Hollub warning that the mid-term production capacity in the USA is "experiencing declining growth rates."