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决定黄金命运的时刻来了!美联储决议酝酿重大风险 关键日如何交易金价?

The moment that determines the fate of Gold has arrived! The Federal Reserve's decision is brewing significant risks. How to Trade Gold prices on this critical day?

FX168 ·  Dec 18 16:16

#GoldTechnical analysis.#24K99 News On Wednesday (December 18), during the early European market, spot Gold maintained a moderate downward trend, with the current price around $2642 per ounce. FXStreet Senior Analyst Dhwani Mehta published an article on Wednesday analyzing the technical trends of Gold prices.

Mehta pointed out that the next movement of Gold prices depends on the Federal Reserve's policy statement, economic forecasts, and the wording of Fed Chairman Powell's press conference. The daily chart of Gold shows thatTechnical aspectthe price of Gold still faces downward risks.

At 03:00 on Thursday, Beijing time, the USAthe Federal Open Market Committee(FOMC) will announce its interest rate decision and economic expectations summary. On Thursday at 03:30 Beijing time, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference.

The market widely expects the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates by 25 basis points. Investors will closely monitor the meeting statement and the press conference held by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell afterwards to further determine the future policy direction. The Federal Reserve's updated economic forecast and dot plot will also be a focus for the market, as they may reshape expectations for the interest rate trajectory in 2025 and 2026.

Analysts pointed out that if Powell takes a cautious stance on further monetary easing, emphasizing a gradual approach, the dollar may strengthen, and the gold price may face selling pressure again.

Mehta wrote that if the Economic Expectations Summary (SEP), the so-called 'dot plot,' shows a smaller rate cut next year than previously predicted, then the dollar might see a new wave of strength, which could impact Gold prices. Powell's comments will also be closely watched to determine the timing of the next rate cut.

Renowned journalist Nick Timiraos from The Wall Street Journal, known as the "Fed's megaphone," wrote that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut plans are constantly changing, with investors widely expecting a third consecutive rate cut this week. After this, officials are prepared to slow down or even stop the rate cuts.

OANDA MarketPulse market analyst Zain Vawda said, "As we approach the Federal Reserve meeting, the risks for Gold actually lean towards the downside."

How to trade gold?

FXStreet Senior Analyst Dhwani Mehta pointed out that the risk for Gold price movement seems to lean downward, validated by the hawkish expectations of the Federal Reserve and the technical analysis on the daily chart.

The daily chart shows that Gold prices have fallen below the 21-day moving average (SMA) of $2655 per ounce again.Relative Strength Index(RSIThe 14-day moving average remains flat, but below the 50 level, indicating that sellers may continue to control future trends.

Mehta states that the short-term resistance for Gold prices is at the 21-day moving average of $2655 per ounce. However, Gold buyers need to overcome the 50-day moving average of $2672 per ounce to begin a meaningful rise towards the $2700 level.

If Gold continues to rise, prices may retest the several-week high of $2726 per ounce.

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(Spot gold daily chart source: FXStreet)

On the downside, Mehta added that the weekly low of 2633 dollars per ounce may provide some support; if this support is broken, the low of 2613 dollars per ounce on December 6 will be tested.

At that time, Gold sellers will target the 2600 dollars per ounce area, which coincides with the 100-day moving average and the low from November 26.

As of 16:06 Beijing time, spot Gold is quoted at 2642.30 dollars per ounce.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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